NunoSempere

I am an independent research and programmer working at my own consultancy, Shapley Maximizers ÖU. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable.  I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.


I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.


I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms, which I still maintain. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated. 

Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term." I used to write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers, but I stopped as the value of my time rose. I also generally enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs.

Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.


You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

Posts

Unflattering aspects of Effective Altruism
by NunoSempere @ 2024-03-15 | +189 | 0 comments
Long list of AI questions
by NunoSempere, David Mathers, Misha_Yagudin, Gavin @ 2023-12-06 | +124 | 0 comments
Relative values for animal suffering and ACE Top Charities
by NunoSempere @ 2023-05-30 | +33 | 0 comments
A flaw in a simple version of worldview diversification
by NunoSempere @ 2023-05-15 | +45 | 0 comments
A Soothing Frontend for the Effective Altruism Forum
by NunoSempere @ 2023-05-05 | +22 | 0 comments
Some estimation work in the horizon
by NunoSempere @ 2023-03-29 | +25 | 0 comments
Estimation for sanity checks
by NunoSempere @ 2023-03-21 | +64 | 0 comments
Winners of the Squiggle Experimentation and 80,000 Hours Quantification...
by NunoSempere @ 2023-03-08 | +62 | 0 comments
Use of “I’d bet” on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical
by NunoSempere @ 2023-03-07 | +17 | 0 comments
Straightforwardly eliciting probabilities from GPT-3
by NunoSempere @ 2023-02-09 | +41 | 0 comments
An in-progress experiment to test how Laplace’s rule of succession performs in...
by NunoSempere @ 2023-01-30 | +57 | 0 comments
My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial...
by NunoSempere @ 2023-01-23 | +431 | 0 comments
Can GPT-3 produce new ideas? Partially automating Robin Hanson and others
by NunoSempere @ 2023-01-16 | +82 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
by NunoSempere @ 2023-01-09 | +24 | 0 comments
COVID-19 in rural Balochistan, Pakistan: Two interviews from May 2020
by NunoSempere, qurat @ 2022-12-16 | +22 | 0 comments
List of past fraudsters similar to SBF
by NunoSempere @ 2022-11-28 | +114 | 0 comments
Some data on the stock of EA™ funding
by NunoSempere @ 2022-11-20 | +62 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
by NunoSempere @ 2022-11-15 | +17 | 0 comments
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
by NunoSempere @ 2022-11-09 | +76 | 0 comments
Metaforecast late 2022 update: GraphQL API, Charts, better infrastructure behind...
by NunoSempere, Slava Matyukhn @ 2022-11-04 | +39 | 0 comments
Brief evaluations of top-10 billionnaires
by NunoSempere @ 2022-10-21 | +79 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
by NunoSempere @ 2022-10-12 | +23 | 0 comments
Five slightly more hardcore Squiggle models.
by NunoSempere @ 2022-10-10 | +31 | 0 comments
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022
by NunoSempere, Misha_Yagudin @ 2022-10-03 | +262 | 0 comments
$5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths
by NunoSempere @ 2022-09-23 | +126 | 0 comments
An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI...
by NunoSempere @ 2022-09-12 | +111 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
by NunoSempere @ 2022-09-10 | +29 | 0 comments
Simple estimation examples in Squiggle
by NunoSempere @ 2022-09-02 | +52 | 0 comments
Introduction to Fermi estimates
by NunoSempere @ 2022-08-26 | +46 | 0 comments
A concern about the “evolutionary anchor” of Ajeya Cotra’s report on AI...
by NunoSempere @ 2022-08-16 | +75 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
by NunoSempere @ 2022-08-08 | +30 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
by NunoSempere @ 2022-07-12 | +49 | 0 comments
A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform
by NunoSempere @ 2022-06-16 | +302 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
by NunoSempere @ 2022-06-03 | +31 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
by NunoSempere @ 2022-05-10 | +44 | 0 comments
EA Forum Lowdown: April 2022
by NunoSempere @ 2022-05-01 | +154 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022
by NunoSempere @ 2022-04-05 | +21 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2222
by NunoSempere @ 2022-04-01 | +28 | 0 comments
Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers
by NunoSempere @ 2022-03-17 | +114 | 0 comments
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
by NunoSempere, Misha_Yagudin, elifland @ 2022-03-10 | +155 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: February 2022
by NunoSempere @ 2022-03-05 | +25 | 0 comments
Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions
by NunoSempere @ 2022-02-18 | +93 | 0 comments
Splitting the timeline as an extinction risk intervention
by NunoSempere @ 2022-02-06 | +14 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: January 2022
by NunoSempere @ 2022-02-03 | +16 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021.
by NunoSempere @ 2022-01-27 | +60 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021
by NunoSempere @ 2022-01-10 | +37 | 0 comments
Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting
by NunoSempere, Misha_Yagudin, elifland @ 2021-12-31 | +87 | 0 comments
External Evaluation of the EA Wiki
by NunoSempere @ 2021-12-13 | +78 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: November 2021
by NunoSempere @ 2021-12-02 | +23 | 0 comments
Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation
by NunoSempere @ 2021-11-25 | +29 | 0 comments
Simple comparison polling to create utility functions
by NunoSempere @ 2021-11-15 | +46 | 0 comments
A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building
by NunoSempere, trammell @ 2021-11-08 | +92 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: October 2021.
by NunoSempere @ 2021-11-02 | +15 | 0 comments
An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions
by NunoSempere @ 2021-10-22 | +47 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2021.
by NunoSempere @ 2021-10-01 | +20 | 0 comments
Building Blocks of Utility Maximization
by NunoSempere @ 2021-09-20 | +21 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021
by NunoSempere @ 2021-09-01 | +24 | 0 comments
Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers
by NunoSempere @ 2021-09-01 | +157 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2021
by NunoSempere @ 2021-08-01 | +19 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021
by NunoSempere @ 2021-07-01 | +29 | 0 comments
Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations
by NunoSempere @ 2021-06-24 | +192 | 0 comments
What should the norms around privacy and evaluation in the EA community be?
by NunoSempere @ 2021-06-16 | +66 | 0 comments
2018-2019 Long-Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?
by NunoSempere @ 2021-06-16 | +194 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2021
by NunoSempere @ 2021-06-01 | +23 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2021
by NunoSempere @ 2021-05-01 | +21 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021
by NunoSempere @ 2021-04-01 | +22 | 0 comments
Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners
by NunoSempere @ 2021-03-16 | +88 | 0 comments
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
by NunoSempere, Ozzie Gooen @ 2021-03-07 | +132 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: February 2021
by NunoSempere @ 2021-03-01 | +19 | 0 comments
Forecasting Prize Results
by NunoSempere, Ozzie Gooen @ 2021-02-19 | +44 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: January 2021
by NunoSempere @ 2021-02-01 | +17 | 0 comments
A Funnel for Cause Candidates
by NunoSempere @ 2021-01-13 | +34 | 0 comments
2020: Forecasting in Review
by NunoSempere @ 2021-01-10 | +35 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: December 2020
by NunoSempere @ 2021-01-01 | +26 | 0 comments
Big List of Cause Candidates
by NunoSempere @ 2020-12-25 | +269 | 0 comments
What are good rubrics or rubric elements to evaluate and predict impact?
by NunoSempere @ 2020-12-03 | +24 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: November 2020.
by NunoSempere @ 2020-12-01 | +33 | 0 comments
An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work
by NunoSempere @ 2020-12-01 | +57 | 0 comments
Predicting the Value of Small Altruistic Projects: A Proof of Concept Experiment..
by NunoSempere @ 2020-11-22 | +62 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: October 2020.
by NunoSempere @ 2020-11-01 | +34 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2020.
by NunoSempere @ 2020-10-01 | +41 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020.
by NunoSempere @ 2020-09-01 | +22 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020.
by NunoSempere @ 2020-08-01 | +31 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2020.
by NunoSempere @ 2020-07-01 | +45 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020.
by NunoSempere @ 2020-05-31 | +35 | 0 comments
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020
by NunoSempere @ 2020-04-30 | +54 | 0 comments
New Cause Proposal: International Supply Chain Accountability
by NunoSempere @ 2020-04-01 | +32 | 0 comments
NunoSempere's Quick takes
by NunoSempere @ 2020-03-22 | +4 | 0 comments
Shapley Values II: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.
by NunoSempere @ 2020-03-10 | +35 | 0 comments
A review of two books on survey-making
by NunoSempere @ 2020-03-01 | +33 | 0 comments
A review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses
by NunoSempere @ 2020-01-15 | +23 | 0 comments
Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals
by NunoSempere @ 2019-10-10 | +141 | 0 comments
Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples.
by NunoSempere @ 2019-10-04 | +102 | 0 comments
EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.
by NunoSempere @ 2019-06-13 | +59 | 0 comments