Forecasting Newsletter: June 2020.

By NunoSempere @ 2020-07-01T09:32 (+45)

Forecasting Newsletter. June 2020.


  1. Facebook launches Forecast, a community for crowdsourced predictions.
  2. Foretell, a forecasting tournament by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, is now open.
  3. A Preliminary Look at Metaculus and Expert Forecasts: Metaculus forecasters do better.

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In the News.

Prediction Markets & Forecasting platforms.

Ordered in subjective order of importance:

Negative examples.

Hard to categorize.

Long Content.

Note to the future: All links are added automatically to the Internet Archive. In case of link rot, go here

"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken." Oliver Cromwell

Pablo_Stafforini @ 2020-07-01T22:38 (+10)

A new, Ethereum-based prediction market has launched: Polymarket. It even features a question about Slate Star Codex and the New York Times. I tried it and it was pretty easy to set up. (I have no affiliation or with the owner.)

Peter_Hurford @ 2020-07-01T13:43 (+1)

FYI - Your link to Foretell is broken

NunoSempere @ 2020-07-01T13:51 (+1)