Global Risks Weekly Roundup #19/2025: India/Pakistan ceasefire, US/China tariffs deal & OpenAI nonprofit control

By NunoSempere @ 2025-05-12T17:11 (+16)

Executive summary

• India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire, and despite initial breaches, it now seems to be holding.
• The Trump administration and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days while talks continue. Markets rejoiced.
• The Trump administration continues to look into ending due process for immigrants to be deported and is making arrangements to deport undocumented immigrants to many countries around the world.
• Israel is set to start a major operation in Gaza soon.
• The nonprofit OpenAI will retain control of the for-profit arm after restructuring.

You can read the rest of the post on substack. EA readers might particularly be interested in the sections tracking AI developments, biorisk, and our estimates of India/Pakistan nuclear war (very low).