US credit rating downgraded, $1T in Gulf state investments in the US, Kurdistan Workers’ Party disbanded | Sentinel Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2025

By NunoSempere @ 2025-05-19T18:02 (+50)

This is a linkpost to https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-202025-df7

Executive summary

Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating as the US budget deficit grows and US borrowing costs rise. House Republicans are advancing a budget that would increase the deficit further. Meanwhile, China is reducing its holdings of US Treasuries and its dependencies on foreign components in its supply chains as it seeks to de-risk its economy from the US and the West.

Google announced a new coding agent, AlphaEvolve, that has creative problem-solving abilities. Gulf states agreed to more than $1T in US investments and joint enterprises during a visit by Trump to the Middle East, including joint AI ventures. Forecasters estimated a 28% chance (range, 25-30%) that the US will pass a 10-year ban on states regulating AI by the end of 2025.

Negotiations between the US and Iran continue. Iran has signaled willingness to limit uranium enrichment and allow inspections in exchange for sanctions being lifted. Forecasters estimated that there is a 46% chance (range, 40%-50%) that the US and Iran will sign an agreement about Iran’s nuclear program by the end of August.

The ceasefire between India and Pakistan is holding. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey has officially disbanded. Israel has launched a new, major offensive in Gaza. Putin did not attend the first direct ceasefire talks with Ukraine since early in the war.

EA readers might be particularly interested in discussing this tidbit: 

Nigeria is considering a bill to establish an agency to eradicate malaria. Whether it goes through or not will be of interest to the Effective Altruism community, because the value of malaria donations (note: particularly at scale) depends on whether local governments would intervene if those donations stopped.