Vasco Grilo🔸
I see myself as a generalist quantitative researcher.
Posts
Farmed animals may have positive lives now or in a few decades?
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-10-26 | +24 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-10-26 | +24 | 0 comments
Achieving Pareto Productivity. Simple Task Management and Productivity Rules...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-10-21 | +16 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-10-21 | +16 | 0 comments
Ambitious Impact’s cost-effectiveness estimates suggest the best interventions...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-10-11 | +25 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-10-11 | +25 | 0 comments
Cost-effectiveness of Shrimp Welfare Project’s Humane Slaughter Initiative
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-10-06 | +65 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-10-06 | +65 | 0 comments
Democracy and human rights are only associated with higher welfare holding...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-10-01 | +7 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-10-01 | +7 | 0 comments
Probability of massive unemployment in the United States based on historical...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-09-21 | +10 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-09-21 | +10 | 0 comments
Variance of the annual conflict and epidemic/pandemic deaths as a fraction of...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-09-10 | +16 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-09-10 | +16 | 0 comments
Factory-farming is as bad as one Holocaust every 2 days?
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-08-31 | –4 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-08-31 | –4 | 0 comments
The most basic rationality techniques are often neglected
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-08-26 | +49 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-08-26 | +49 | 0 comments
The Life You Can Save suggests people earning 40 to 80 k$/year donate just 1 %
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-08-21 | +42 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-08-21 | +42 | 0 comments
Catastrophes in high risk years become less likely as the number of past near...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-08-10 | +11 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-08-10 | +11 | 0 comments
Future deaths from non-optimal temperature and cost-effectiveness of...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-07-25 | +22 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-07-25 | +22 | 0 comments
Democracy indices weighted by nominal and real gross domestic product
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-07-20 | +12 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-07-20 | +12 | 0 comments
Can a pandemic cause human extinction? Possibly, at least on priors
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-07-15 | +29 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-07-15 | +29 | 0 comments
Cost-effectiveness of epidemic/pandemic preparedness
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-06-30 | +32 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-06-30 | +32 | 0 comments
Can a conflict cause human extinction? Yet again, not on priors
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-06-19 | +19 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-06-19 | +19 | 0 comments
Cost-effectiveness of buying organic instead of barn eggs
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-06-14 | +23 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-06-14 | +23 | 0 comments
Reducing the nearterm risk of human extinction is not astronomically...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-06-09 | +20 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-06-09 | +20 | 0 comments
I bet Greg Colbourn 10 k€ that AI will not kill us all by the end of 2027
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-06-04 | +195 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-06-04 | +195 | 0 comments
Dispersion in the extinction risk predictions made in the Existential Risk...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-05-10 | +22 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-05-10 | +22 | 0 comments
Founders Pledge’s Climate Change Fund might be more cost-effective than...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-05-05 | +60 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-05-05 | +60 | 0 comments
Saving lives in normal times is better to improve the longterm future than doing...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-04-20 | +11 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-04-20 | +11 | 0 comments
Should Open Philanthropy build detailed quantitative models which estimate...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-04-10 | +11 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-04-10 | +11 | 0 comments
Should the main text of the write-ups of Open Philanthropy’s large grants be...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-03-31 | +55 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-03-31 | +55 | 0 comments
Helping animals or saving human lives in high income countries is arguably...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-03-21 | +12 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-03-21 | +12 | 0 comments
Cost-effectiveness of The Introductory EA Program and 80,000 Hours’ 1-on-1...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-03-16 | +24 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-03-16 | +24 | 0 comments
Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley on Barriers to Bioweapons
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-02-15 | +21 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-02-15 | +21 | 0 comments
How much pressure do you feel against externally expressing views which do not...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-02-10 | +60 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-02-10 | +60 | 0 comments
Can a war cause human extinction? Once again, not on priors
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-01-25 | +67 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-01-25 | +67 | 0 comments
Maintaining differential pressure gradients does not increase safety inside...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-01-15 | +13 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-01-15 | +13 | 0 comments
Copenhagen Consensus Center's best investment papers for the sustainable...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-01-10 | +68 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-01-10 | +68 | 0 comments
Expected value and uncertainty without full Monte Carlo simulations
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-01-05 | +12 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-01-05 | +12 | 0 comments
Should 80,000 Hours be more transparent about how they rank problems and careers...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-12-20 | +89 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-12-20 | +89 | 0 comments
My quick thoughts on donating to EA Funds' Global Health and Development Fund...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-12-15 | +33 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-12-15 | +33 | 0 comments
Can a terrorist attack cause human extinction? Not on priors
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-12-02 | +43 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-12-02 | +43 | 0 comments
Famine deaths due to the climatic effects of nuclear war
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-10-14 | +40 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-10-14 | +40 | 0 comments
International risk of food insecurity and mass mortality in a runaway global...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-09-02 | +15 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-09-02 | +15 | 0 comments
Critique of “Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2”
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-08-19 | +30 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-08-19 | +30 | 0 comments
Badness of eating farmed animals in terms of smoking cigarettes
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-07-22 | +26 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-07-22 | +26 | 0 comments
Prior probability of this being the most important century
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-07-15 | +8 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-07-15 | +8 | 0 comments
Will the vast majority of technological progress happen in the longterm future?
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-07-08 | +8 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-07-08 | +8 | 0 comments
Evidence of effectiveness and transparency of a few effective giving...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-07-01 | +60 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-07-01 | +60 | 0 comments
Should Our World in Data discuss wild animal welfare in the context of nature...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-06-18 | +26 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-06-18 | +26 | 0 comments
Are we confident that superintelligent artificial intelligence disempowering...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-06-10 | +24 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-06-10 | +24 | 0 comments
Quantifying and interpreting the risks of mountaineering
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-06-03 | +19 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-06-03 | +19 | 0 comments
Do you think decreasing the consumption of animals is good/bad? Think again?
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-05-27 | +89 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-05-27 | +89 | 0 comments
Prioritising animal welfare over global health and development?
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-05-13 | +112 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-05-13 | +112 | 0 comments
Ukrainian nonviolent civil resistance in the face of war
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-05-07 | +8 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-05-07 | +8 | 0 comments
Shapley value, importance, easiness and neglectedness
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-05-05 | +27 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-05-05 | +27 | 0 comments
More global warming might be good to mitigate the food shocks caused by abrupt...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-04-29 | +46 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-04-29 | +46 | 0 comments
Metaculus’ predictions are much better than low-information priors
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-04-11 | +53 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-04-11 | +53 | 0 comments
Increase in future potential due to mitigating food shocks caused by abrupt...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-03-28 | +12 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-03-28 | +12 | 0 comments
Future benefits of mitigating food shocks caused by abrupt sunlight reduction...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-03-04 | +20 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-03-04 | +20 | 0 comments
Social impact of the donations of the 10 richest people in the world - very...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-01-28 | –8 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2023-01-28 | –8 | 0 comments
Why I am happy to reject the possibility of infinite worlds
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-12-25 | +13 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-12-25 | +13 | 0 comments
What should the levels of consumption and savings be?
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-12-18 | +12 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-12-18 | +12 | 0 comments
How should EA Forum readers vote on comments/posts/tags?
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-12-09 | +9 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-12-09 | +9 | 0 comments
What is the relationship between impact and EA Forum karma?
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-12-06 | +14 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-12-06 | +14 | 0 comments
Cost-effectiveness of operations management in high-impact organisations
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-11-27 | +48 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-11-27 | +48 | 0 comments
Is improving the welfare of arthropods and nematodes underrated?
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-11-08 | +37 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-11-08 | +37 | 0 comments
Open Letter Against Reckless Nuclear Escalation and Use
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-11-03 | +10 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-11-03 | +10 | 0 comments
What do you think is the probability of ethical hedonism being true?
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-10-20 | +18 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-10-20 | +18 | 0 comments
Population with high IQ predicts real GDP better than population
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-10-17 | +9 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-10-17 | +9 | 0 comments
Probability of extinction for various types of catastrophes
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-10-09 | +16 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-10-09 | +16 | 0 comments
Confidence in the premises of the Repugnant Conclusion - results from a small...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-10-08 | +19 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-10-08 | +19 | 0 comments
How much donations are needed to neutralise the annual x-risk footprint of the...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-09-22 | +8 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-09-22 | +8 | 0 comments
What is your confidence in the premises of the Repugnant Conclusion?
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-09-20 | +16 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-09-20 | +16 | 0 comments
Longterm cost-effectiveness of Founders Pledge's Climate Change Fund
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-09-14 | +36 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-09-14 | +36 | 0 comments
Linear regressions of the annual amount granted by Open Philanthropy by focus...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-08-20 | +7 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-08-20 | +7 | 0 comments
Why does GiveWell not provide lower and upper estimates for the...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-07-31 | +45 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-07-31 | +45 | 0 comments
Corporate campaigns for chicken welfare are 10,000 times as effective as...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-07-28 | +78 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-07-28 | +78 | 0 comments
My notes on: Know what you’re optimising for | Alex Lawsen
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-06-26 | +5 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-06-26 | +5 | 0 comments
Red-teaming Holden Karnofsky's AI timelines
by Vasco Grilo🔸, Simon Holm @ 2022-06-25 | +58 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸, Simon Holm @ 2022-06-25 | +58 | 0 comments
My notes on: A Very Rational End of the World | Thomas Moynihan
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-06-20 | +13 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-06-20 | +13 | 0 comments
When should the inverse-variance method be applied to distributions?
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-06-14 | +5 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-06-14 | +5 | 0 comments
Comparison between the hedonic utility of human life and poultry living time
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-06-08 | +47 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-06-08 | +47 | 0 comments
How to determine distribution parameters from quantiles
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-05-30 | +23 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-05-30 | +23 | 0 comments
Donations to effective climate charities needed to cancel lifetime GHG emissions
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-25 | +18 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-25 | +18 | 0 comments
What is the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell's top life-saving charities under...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-22 | +14 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-22 | +14 | 0 comments
Summary: The Value of Giving Money to Different Groups | Toby Ord
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-22 | +23 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-22 | +23 | 0 comments
Summary: The Importance of End-of-Life Welfare | Browning & Veit
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-22 | +7 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-22 | +7 | 0 comments
The number of seabirds and sea mammals killed by marine plastic pollution is...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-19 | +88 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-19 | +88 | 0 comments
My notes on: Why we can’t take expected value estimates literally (even when...
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-18 | +15 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-18 | +15 | 0 comments
Are there any uber-analyses of GiveWell/ACE top charities?
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-16 | +14 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-16 | +14 | 0 comments
Summary: Evidence, cluelessness and the long term | Hilary Greaves
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-15 | +6 | 0 comments
by Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-04-15 | +6 | 0 comments