Linear regressions of the annual amount granted by Open Philanthropy by focus area
By Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2022-08-20T15:59 (+7)
Summary
- The slope, intercept, correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, and standard error of the slope of the linear regression of the annual amount granted by Open Philanthropy (OP) by focus area on year, from 2015 to 2021, is in tab "Annual amount granted" of this Sheets.
Methodology
OP's grants data were downloaded from here (see tab "Grants"). All the amounts were converted to current USD (15 August 2022 prices) using inflation data from in2013dollars (see tab "Inflation").
The above data were used to calculate, by focus area from 2015 to 2021:
- The annual amount granted.
- The slope, intercept, correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R^2), and standard error of the slope of the linear regression of the annual amount granted on year.
Results
The slope and coefficient of determination are presented in the table below, ordered by increasing slope (note the last row respects all areas). The full results are in tab "Annual amount granted".
| Focus area | Slope (M$/year) | Coefficient of determination |
|---|---|---|
| Science for Global Health | -0.966 | 0.057 |
| Scientific Innovation: Tools and Techniques | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| History of Philanthropy | -0.007 | 0.045 |
| Effective Altruism Community Growth (Global Health and Wellbeing) | 0.070 | 0.375 |
| South Asian Air Quality | 0.115 | 0.550 |
| Global Aid Policy | 0.123 | 0.375 |
| Cage-Free Reforms | 0.294 | 0.009 |
| Immigration Policy | 0.316 | 0.335 |
| Global Health & Wellbeing | 0.409 | 0.295 |
| Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy | 0.538 | 0.464 |
| Transformative Basic Science | 0.706 | 0.036 |
| Land Use Reform | 0.753 | 0.463 |
| Scientific Research | 0.889 | 0.231 |
| Alternatives to Animal Products | 0.895 | 0.501 |
| Broiler Chicken Welfare | 1.231 | 0.252 |
| Other Scientific Research Areas | 1.298 | 0.592 |
| Science Supporting Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness | 1.610 | 0.197 |
| Other Areas | 1.818 | 0.721 |
| Effective Altruism Community Growth | 2.243 | 0.542 |
| Potential Risks from Advanced AI | 3.067 | 0.375 |
| Biosecurity & Pandemic Preparedness | 3.880 | 0.413 |
| Global Health & Development | 3.914 | 0.106 |
| GiveWell-Recommended Charities | 3.947 | 0.040 |
| Human Health and Wellbeing | 5.803 | 0.574 |
| Criminal Justice Reform | 7.586 | 0.398 |
| Farm Animal Welfare | 8.127 | 0.560 |
| Longtermism | 8.845 | 0.373 |
| All | 57.489 | 0.708 |
Discussion
The total annual amount granted has increased 57.5 M$/year from 2015 to 2021, with a coefficient of correlation of 0.708. Amongst the 27 focus areas, the slope is:
- Negative for 3.
- Between 0 and 1 M$/year for 11.
- Between 1 M$/year and 10 M$/year for 13.
- The lowest for science for global health (-1 M$/year), scientific innovation tools and techniques (-0.02 M$/year), and history of philanthropy (-0.007 M$/year).
- The highest for longtermism (9 M$/year), farm animal welfare (8 M$/year), and criminal justice reform (8 M$/year).