Democracy and human rights are only associated with higher welfare holding income constant in some countries

By Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2024-10-01T16:06 (+7)

The views expressed here are my own, not those of my employers.

Summary

• Holding real gross domestic product (real GDP) per capita constant, there is significant cross-country variation respecting whether more democracy and human rights are associated with a smaller/larger population size, life expectancy at birth, share of people who are satisfied with their life, and life satisfaction.

Introduction

People in more democratic countries tend to live longer, and countries where people live longer tend to have higher life satisfaction. I checked whether similar relationships hold within countries holding real GDP per capita constant.

Methods

I run within-country linear regressions of the population size, life expectancy at birth, share of people who are satisfied with their life, and life satisfaction on the logarithm of the real GDP per capita, and either the Varieties of Democracy’s electoral democracy index or civil liberties index (human rights index). I aggregated results across all countries, and ones in the European Union (EU).

Results

The calculations and full results are in this sheet.

Democracy

World

EU

Human rights

World

EU

Discussion

According to my results, holding real GDP per capita constant, a higher:

• Varieties of Democracy’s electoral democracy index is associated with a:
  • Larger population size in 64.5 % of the countries globally, and 25.9 % of the countries in the EU. The mean effect across all countries is positive, and that across EU’s countries is negative.
  • Longer life expectancy at birth in 69.8 % of the countries globally, and 77.8 % of the countries in the EU. The mean effect across all countries is positive, and so is that across EU’s countries.
  • Larger share of people who are satisfied with their life in 37.1 % of the countries in Europe, and 40.7 % of the countries in the EU. The mean effect across Europe’s countries is negative, and so is that across EU’s countries.
  • Higher life satisfaction in 45.0 % of the countries globally, and 48.1 % of the countries in the EU. The mean effect across all countries is negative, and that across EU’s countries is positive.
• Civil liberties index is associated with a:
  • Larger population size in 62.2 % of the countries globally, and 14.8 % of the countries in the EU. The mean effect across all countries is positive, and that across EU’s countries is negative.
  • Longer life expectancy at birth and population in 63.4 % of the countries globally, and 55.6 % of the countries in the EU. The mean effect across all countries is positive, and that across EU’s countries is negative.
  • Larger share of people who are satisfied with their life in 28.6 % of the countries in Europe, and 29.6 % of the countries in the EU. The mean effect across Europe’s countries is negative, and so is that across EU’s countries.
  • Longer life satisfaction in 42.5 % of the countries globally, and 33.3 % of the countries in the EU. The mean effect across all countries is negative, and so is that across EU’s countries.

These results suggest more democracy and human rights, holding real GDP per capita constant, are associated with a higher welfare in a random country in the world, and a negative one in a random country in the EU^[2]. I expect the results to become less favourable to democracy and human rights after controlling for sanctions from and conflicts/cooperation with the West as done in Park 2024, although not much since I already controlled for real GDP per capita. In any case, I think the key takeaways is that there is significant cross-country variation, both globally and in the EU.

1. ^{^}

    This index only respects countries in Europe.

2. ^{^}

    Across all countries excluding the regressions on the share of people satisfied with their life, which only respect Europe’s countries, 66.7 % (4 out) of the 6 mentioned mean effects are positive. Across EU’s countries, 25.0 % (2 out) of the 8 mentioned mean effects are positive. In contrast, 100 % (16 out) of the 16 mean effects with respect to the logarithm of the real GDP per capita are positive.