Vasco Grilo

Founders Pledge’s Climate Change Fund might be more cost-effective than...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-05-05 | +43 | 0 comments

Imitation Learning is Probably Existentially Safe
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-04-30 | +19 | 0 comments

Animals in Cost-Benefit Analysis
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-04-25 | +38 | 0 comments

Saving lives in normal times is better to improve the longterm future than doing...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-04-20 | +11 | 0 comments

Concepts of existential catastrophe
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-04-15 | +11 | 0 comments

Should Open Philanthropy build detailed quantitative models which estimate...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-04-10 | +11 | 0 comments

Brian Tomasik on personal effectiveness
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-04-05 | +33 | 0 comments

Should the main text of the write-ups of Open Philanthropy’s large grants be...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-03-31 | +49 | 0 comments

Crises reveal centralisation
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-03-26 | +31 | 0 comments

Helping animals or saving human lives in high income countries is arguably...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-03-21 | +12 | 0 comments

Cost-effectiveness of The Introductory EA Program and 80,000 Hours’ 1-on-1...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-03-16 | +22 | 0 comments

Marginal value (or lack thereof) of voting
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-03-11 | +6 | 0 comments

Supervolcanoes tail risk has been exaggerated?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-03-06 | +36 | 0 comments

Marginal Revolution University's courses and series
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-03-01 | +26 | 0 comments

Nuclear war tail risk has been exaggerated?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-02-25 | +41 | 0 comments

Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-02-20 | +13 | 0 comments

Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley on Barriers to Bioweapons
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-02-15 | +18 | 0 comments

How much pressure do you feel against externally expressing views which do not...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-02-10 | +60 | 0 comments

Will scaling work?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-02-04 | +19 | 0 comments

Cost-effectiveness of restricted donations
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-02-03 | +10 | 0 comments

Brian Tomasik on charity
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-01-30 | +30 | 0 comments

Can a war cause human extinction? Once again, not on priors
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-01-25 | +67 | 0 comments

Some thoughts on moderation in doing good
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-01-20 | +34 | 0 comments

Maintaining differential pressure gradients does not increase safety inside...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-01-15 | +13 | 0 comments

Copenhagen Consensus Center's best investment papers for the sustainable...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-01-10 | +68 | 0 comments

Expected value and uncertainty without full Monte Carlo simulations
by Vasco Grilo @ 2024-01-05 | +12 | 0 comments

Exaggerating the risks (Part 13: Ord on Biorisk)
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-12-31 | +57 | 0 comments

A year of wins for farmed animals
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-12-24 | +171 | 0 comments

Should 80,000 Hours be more transparent about how they rank problems and careers...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-12-20 | +89 | 0 comments

My quick thoughts on donating to EA Funds' Global Health and Development Fund...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-12-15 | +33 | 0 comments

Bryan Caplan on pacifism
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-12-09 | +10 | 0 comments

Can a terrorist attack cause human extinction? Not on priors
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-12-02 | +43 | 0 comments

Brian Tomasik on climate change
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-11-25 | +43 | 0 comments

Why I don’t prioritize consciousness research
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-10-28 | +45 | 0 comments

Controlling for a thinker’s big idea
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-10-21 | +60 | 0 comments

Famine deaths due to the climatic effects of nuclear war
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-10-14 | +40 | 0 comments

International risk of food insecurity and mass mortality in a runaway global...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-09-02 | +15 | 0 comments

Critique of “Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2”
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-08-19 | +30 | 0 comments

Nuclear winter scepticism
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-08-13 | +110 | 0 comments

Badness of eating farmed animals in terms of smoking cigarettes
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-07-22 | +21 | 0 comments

Prior probability of this being the most important century
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-07-15 | +8 | 0 comments

Will the vast majority of technological progress happen in the longterm future?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-07-08 | +8 | 0 comments

Evidence of effectiveness and transparency of a few effective giving...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-07-01 | +60 | 0 comments

Welfare ranges per calorie consumption
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-06-24 | +12 | 0 comments

Should Our World in Data discuss wild animal welfare in the context of nature...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-06-18 | +26 | 0 comments

The Meat Eater Problem
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-06-17 | +51 | 0 comments

Are we confident that superintelligent artificial intelligence disempowering...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-06-10 | +24 | 0 comments

Quantifying and interpreting the risks of mountaineering
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-06-03 | +19 | 0 comments

Do you think decreasing the consumption of animals is good/bad? Think again?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-05-27 | +89 | 0 comments

Prioritising animal welfare over global health and development?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-05-13 | +107 | 0 comments

Ukrainian nonviolent civil resistance in the face of war
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-05-07 | +8 | 0 comments

Shapley value, importance, easiness and neglectedness
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-05-05 | +27 | 0 comments

Global computing capacity
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-05-01 | +12 | 0 comments

More global warming might be good to mitigate the food shocks caused by abrupt...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-04-29 | +46 | 0 comments

My impact assessment of Giving What We Can
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-04-15 | +40 | 0 comments

Metaculus’ predictions are much better than low-information priors
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-04-11 | +53 | 0 comments

Increase in future potential due to mitigating food shocks caused by abrupt...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-03-28 | +12 | 0 comments

Exploring Metaculus’ community predictions
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-03-24 | +94 | 0 comments

Scale of the welfare of various animal populations
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-03-19 | +53 | 0 comments

Future benefits of mitigating food shocks caused by abrupt sunlight reduction...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-03-04 | +20 | 0 comments

Counterproductive Altruism: The Other Heavy Tail
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-03-01 | +186 | 0 comments

Social impact of the donations of the 10 richest people in the world - very...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-01-28 | –8 | 0 comments

Finding bugs in GiveWell's top charities
by Vasco Grilo @ 2023-01-23 | +42 | 0 comments

Why I am happy to reject the possibility of infinite worlds
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-12-25 | +13 | 0 comments

What should the levels of consumption and savings be?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-12-18 | +12 | 0 comments

How should EA Forum readers vote on comments/posts/tags?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-12-09 | +9 | 0 comments

What is the relationship between impact and EA Forum karma?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-12-06 | +14 | 0 comments

Tree planting cost-effectiveness
by Vasco Grilo, HanzhangRen @ 2022-12-03 | +49 | 0 comments

Cost-effectiveness of operations management in high-impact organisations
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-11-27 | +48 | 0 comments

Is improving the welfare of arthropods and nematodes underrated?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-11-08 | +37 | 0 comments

Open Letter Against Reckless Nuclear Escalation and Use
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-11-03 | +10 | 0 comments

How binary is longterm value?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-11-01 | +13 | 0 comments

What do you think is the probability of ethical hedonism being true?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-10-20 | +18 | 0 comments

Population with high IQ predicts real GDP better than population
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-10-17 | +9 | 0 comments

Probability of extinction for various types of catastrophes
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-10-09 | +16 | 0 comments

Confidence in the premises of the Repugnant Conclusion - results from a small...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-10-08 | +19 | 0 comments

Global life satisfaction distribution
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-10-01 | +18 | 0 comments

How much donations are needed to neutralise the annual x-risk footprint of the...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-09-22 | +8 | 0 comments

What is your confidence in the premises of the Repugnant Conclusion?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-09-20 | +16 | 0 comments

Longterm cost-effectiveness of Founders Pledge's Climate Change Fund
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-09-14 | +35 | 0 comments

Linear regressions of the annual amount granted by Open Philanthropy by focus...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-08-20 | +7 | 0 comments

Why does GiveWell not provide lower and upper estimates for the...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-07-31 | +45 | 0 comments

Open Philanthropy's AI grants
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-07-30 | +21 | 0 comments

Corporate campaigns for chicken welfare are 10,000 times as effective as...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-07-28 | +77 | 0 comments

Moral weights for various species and distributions
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-07-03 | +15 | 0 comments

My notes on: Know what you’re optimising for | Alex Lawsen
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-06-26 | +5 | 0 comments

Red-teaming Holden Karnofsky's AI timelines
by Vasco Grilo, Simon Holm @ 2022-06-25 | +58 | 0 comments

My notes on: A Very Rational End of the World | Thomas Moynihan
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-06-20 | +13 | 0 comments

Are poultry birds really important? Yes...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-06-19 | +13 | 0 comments

When should the inverse-variance method be applied to distributions?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-06-14 | +5 | 0 comments

Comparison between the hedonic utility of human life and poultry living time
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-06-08 | +47 | 0 comments

My notes on: Searching for outliers
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-06-03 | +9 | 0 comments

How to determine distribution parameters from quantiles
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-05-30 | +23 | 0 comments

Types of information hazards
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-05-29 | +15 | 0 comments

My notes on: Sequence thinking vs. cluster thinking
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-05-25 | +24 | 0 comments

Do you have impostor syndrome?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-05-08 | +18 | 0 comments

Donations to effective climate charities needed to cancel lifetime GHG emissions
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-04-25 | +18 | 0 comments

Cost-effectiveness of donating a kidney
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-04-23 | +15 | 0 comments

What is the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell's top life-saving charities under...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-04-22 | +14 | 0 comments

Summary: The Value of Giving Money to Different Groups | Toby Ord
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-04-22 | +23 | 0 comments

Summary: The Importance of End-of-Life Welfare | Browning & Veit
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-04-22 | +7 | 0 comments

Civilizational vulnerabilities
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-04-22 | +7 | 0 comments

The number of seabirds and sea mammals killed by marine plastic pollution is...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-04-19 | +87 | 0 comments

My notes on: Why we can’t take expected value estimates literally (even when...
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-04-18 | +14 | 0 comments

Are there any uber-analyses of GiveWell/ACE top charities?
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-04-16 | +14 | 0 comments

Summary: Evidence, cluelessness and the long term | Hilary Greaves
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-04-15 | +6 | 0 comments

Cost-effectiveness of sending personal messages
by Vasco Grilo @ 2022-03-29 | +8 | 0 comments