Forecasting Research Institute

Posts

Announcing ForecastBench, a new benchmark for AI and human forecasting abilities
by Forecasting Research Institute @ 2024-10-01 | +20 | 0 comments

Conditional Trees: Generating Informative Forecasting Questions (FRI) -- AI Risk...
by Forecasting Research Institute, Tegan, Jhrosenberg, AvitalM, Molly Hickman, Otto Kuusela, Sam Glover @ 2024-08-12 | +43 | 0 comments

Results from an Adversarial Collaboration on AI Risk (FRI)
by Forecasting Research Institute, Jhrosenberg, AvitalM, Molly Hickman, rosehadshar @ 2024-03-11 | +193 | 0 comments

Input sought on next steps for the XPT (also, we're hiring!)
by Forecasting Research Institute @ 2023-09-29 | +34 | 0 comments

A selection of cross-cutting results from the XPT
by Forecasting Research Institute, Bridget_Williams @ 2023-09-26 | +18 | 0 comments

What do XPT results tell us about biorisk?
by Forecasting Research Institute, Bridget_Williams @ 2023-09-13 | +23 | 0 comments

What do XPT forecasts tell us about nuclear risk?
by Forecasting Research Institute @ 2023-08-22 | +22 | 0 comments

XPT forecasts on (some) Direct Approach model inputs
by Forecasting Research Institute, rosehadshar @ 2023-08-20 | +37 | 0 comments

Summary of posts on XPT forecasts on AI risk and timelines
by Forecasting Research Institute, rosehadshar @ 2023-07-25 | +28 | 0 comments

XPT forecasts on (some) biological anchors inputs
by Forecasting Research Institute, rosehadshar @ 2023-07-24 | +37 | 0 comments

What do XPT forecasts tell us about AI risk?
by Forecasting Research Institute, rosehadshar @ 2023-07-19 | +97 | 0 comments

Announcing "Forecasting Existential Risks: Evidence from a Long-Run Forecasting...
by Forecasting Research Institute @ 2023-07-10 | +160 | 0 comments