Gregory Lewis🔸

Say how much, not more or less versus someone else
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2023-12-28 | +100 | 0 comments

Most* small probabilities aren't pascalian
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2022-08-07 | +212 | 0 comments

Terminate deliberation based on resilience, not certainty
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2022-06-05 | +152 | 0 comments

Rational predictions often update predictably*
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2022-05-15 | +143 | 0 comments

Complex cluelessness as credal fragility
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2021-02-08 | +57 | 0 comments

Take care with notation for uncertain quantities
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2020-09-16 | +39 | 0 comments

Challenges in evaluating forecaster performance
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2020-09-08 | +22 | 0 comments

Use resilience, instead of imprecision, to communicate uncertainty
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2020-07-18 | +103 | 0 comments

Reducing global catastrophic biological risks
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2020-03-01 | +10 | 0 comments

Reality is often underpowered
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2019-10-10 | +234 | 0 comments

Risk Communication Strategies for the Very Worst of Cases
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2019-03-09 | +26 | 0 comments

The person-affecting value of existential risk reduction
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2018-04-13 | +64 | 0 comments

How fragile was history?
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2018-02-02 | +22 | 0 comments

In defence of epistemic modesty
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2017-10-29 | +140 | 0 comments

Beware surprising and suspicious convergence
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2016-01-24 | +218 | 0 comments

At what cost, carnivory?
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2015-10-29 | +12 | 0 comments

Don't sweat diet?
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2015-10-22 | +18 | 0 comments

Log-normal lamentations
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2015-05-19 | +28 | 0 comments

How best to aggregate judgements about donations?
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2015-04-12 | +5 | 0 comments

Saving the World, and Healing the Sick
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2015-02-12 | +18 | 0 comments

Expected value estimates you can take (somewhat) literally
by Gregory Lewis🔸 @ 2014-11-24 | +23 | 0 comments

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