Announcing Manifest 2023 (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)

By Manifest, Saul Munn, Austin @ 2023-08-14T11:41 (+46)

Forecasting Festival hosted by Manifold

TL;DR: Manifold is hosting a conference! 🥳 Chat with the Manifold team, special guests like Robin Hanson, Shayne Coplan, Patrick McKenzie, Dylan Matthews, Destiny, Aella, and more at our inaugural in-person gathering of the forecasting & prediction market community.

More info & buy tickets: manifestconference.net

WHEN: Sept 22-24

WHERE: Berkeley, CA

WHO: Everyone in the forecasting, EA, and LW communities. If you're reading this, you're invited!

Join the Discord here :)

Why should I come?

Forecasting and prediction markets are effective ways of improving our judgement and decision-making — most people in the Effective Altruism and LessWrong communities will feel right at home at Manifest.

Here are extra reasons to come:

• you think forecasting & prediction markets are impactful/fun/cool/rational/intriguing/etc
• you want to vibe with other forecasting nerds
• you want to engage & network with the forecasting community (find jobs/recruit hires/see what’s out there)
• you want to meet & chat with the Manifold team and our special guests (including Robin Hanson, Shayne Coplan, Patrick McKenzie, Dylan Matthews, Destiny, Aella, and more!)
• you want enjoy the gorgeous Rose Garden Inn
• …or if you like memes?

A day at Manifest

Everything’s optional. There will always be a bunch of sessions running concurrently, but this is an example of what your day at Manifest might look like:

10-11 — Opening session

11-12 — Fireside chat: Robin Hanson

12-1 — Lunch & mingling

1-2 — Estimathon: fermi estimation with prizes and steep competition!

2-3 — Speed friending: a few chats with other friendly, ambitious forecasting nerds :)

3-4 — Break: relax, vibe, unwind, chill, destress, etc

4-5 — Panel: Forecasting Founders (hear from Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, Insight Predictions, and more!)

5-6 — Games & markets: chess, poker, and prediction markets!

6-7 — Dinner & mingling

7-8 — Workshop: How to Write Good Forecasting Questions

8-12 — Murder She Bet: a murder mystery + a low-tech prediction market = fun!

Who else is coming?

The rest of the forecasting & prediction market community. Current speakers & special guests include:

• The whole Manifold team, including co-founders Austin Chen and Stephen & James Grugett
• Robin Hanson (economist & professor)
• Shayne Coplan (CEO of Polymarket)
• Patrick McKenzie (writer, Advisor at Stripe)
• Dylan Matthews (Head writer at Future Perfect, Vox)
• Destiny (streamer & political streamer)
• Aella (sex researcher & writer)
• Josh Rosenberg (CEO of the Forecasting Research Institute)
• Rational Animations (Rationality Youtuber)
• Byrne Hobart (Author of The Diff)
• Cate Hall (CEO of Alvea)
• Robert Miles (AI safety researcher & writer)
• …and more to be announced!

For the most up-to-date info, see manifestconference.net/speakers :)

Where can I buy tickets?

Buy tickets & check the most up-to-date info on the Manifest website! Tickets are free for students and employees of forecasting organizations.