An AI Race With China Can Be Better Than Not Racing

By niplav @ 2024-07-02T17:57 (+18)

This is a crosspost, probably from LessWrong. Try viewing it there.

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SummaryBot @ 2024-07-03T14:24 (+1)

Executive summary: A Monte Carlo analysis suggests that an AI race between the US and China could be better than not racing, though advocating for an international AI project is preferable if it has a ≥20% chance of success.

Key points:

  1. The analysis models timelines, extinction probabilities, and outcome values for US-led, China-led, and collaborative AI development scenarios.
  2. Racing scenarios have slightly higher expected value than non-racing scenarios where China develops AI alone.
  3. A 20% chance of successfully advocating for international collaboration beats racing scenarios in expected value.
  4. Key uncertainties include AI timelines, extinction probabilities, and the relative values of different AI development outcomes.
  5. The author acknowledges limitations in the model and encourages further quantitative analysis of this issue.

 

 

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