Metaculus's Keep Virginia Safe II Tournament Enters 2nd Round

By christian @ 2023-04-04T21:51 (+11)

This is a linkpost to https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/keep-virginia-safe-ii/

The 2nd round of the Keep Virginia Safe II Tournament is open for forecasting, continuing Metaculus's partnership with the Virginia Department of Health and the University of Virginia's Biocomplexity Institute to support the decision making of public health officials. 

The KVSII Tournament directly addresses key scientific and policy questions by aggregating knowledge from many experts and forecasters. Predictions serve as inputs for computational modeling and policy decisions in the state of Virginia. 

$20,000 in prizes will be awarded for accuracy. Start making your predictions.

Here are some of ways forecasts are already making a difference according to the VDH: 

COVID-19 Incidence

Forecasts indicated a continued decline in COVID-19 hospital admissions, with XBB.1.5 variant saturation expected to persist. Informing VDH's expectation of a delayed surge helps the department plan accordingly.

COVID-19 Policies

Forecasts indicated that the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for all therapeutics is unlikely to be withdrawn before the end of 2023. Further, the patient-level data requirement may end before the Public Health Emergency (PHE) on May 11th. Both of these insights have been valuable for policy planning and resource allocation.

Vaccine Privatization

Vaccine privatization may occur in late summer 2023—information that helps staff prepare for potential changes in vaccine distribution.

Other Diseases & Public Health Impact

Forecasts suggested a low probability of a second flu peak this season, reducing concerns about H5N1 in birds and monkeypox for 2023. Public health officials can allocate those resources more effectively.

New Questions Provide Forecasting Support to Health Officials

10 questions have been added, including new subquestions:

When Will the WHO’s COVID-19 Public Health Emergency of International Concern Expire?

Will the WHO Identify a New SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern Before 2024?

How Long Does a Bivalent Booster Remain Effective for Those 65+?

When Will the CDC Recommend an Additional Updated COVID-19 Booster?

And note the new subquestions on this question group on XBB1.5

We again express our gratitude to the forecasting community for sharing your insights on this important initiative. Thank you!