The Metaculus Cup Series Is Live, $5,000 Prize Pool

By christian @ 2025-05-05T17:14 (+5)

This is a linkpost to https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup/

We're excited to announce the Metaculus Cup series, an evolution of our Quarterly Cup tournaments with an enhanced prize pool of $5,000! Want to level up your forecasting skills, build your reputation, contribute to clarity on the news of the day, and compete for cash prizes? Join the Metaculus Cup!

• Who will win the Tour de France 2025?
• What defense spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?
• Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?
• Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?

Tournament Structure

The Metaculus Cup will run three tournaments annually—spring, summer, and fall—each lasting four months. Every Monday, we'll launch new questions covering current events and engaging forecasting challenges.

Each Friday at 17:00 UTC, an average of 4 questions will be set to "Upcoming," opening three days later. This gives forecasters time to prepare and provide feedback. Breaking news may result in additional questions being launched during the week. Questions will frequently close early, though some might remain open for the entire tournament duration.

Prize Structure

This tournament features a $5,000 prize divided into two distinct prize pools:

Forecasting Prize ($3,500)

The forecasting prize will be based on time-averaged scores, rewarding accuracy and consistency in your predictions.

Commenting Prize ($1,500)

The commenting prize will be distributed to the 10 best comments made on Metaculus Cup questions before the end of the tournament. Prizes will be awarded as follows:

• 1st: $300
• 2nd: $250
• 3rd: $200
• 4th: $150
• 5th-10th: $100 each

Metaculus will select top comments that showcase some or all of these qualities:

• Provides clear and insightful reasoning
• Contributes valuable information
• Identifies mistakes in the community's prediction or makes a strong case for a different prediction
• Identifies key factors and submits them using the new key factors feature
• Receives "Changed My Mind" votes or has key factors rated as significant by the community

Comments don't need to predict accurately to win prizes—even directionally incorrect comments can be rewarded based on the strength of their reasoning. Individual commenters can receive multiple prizes but will be capped once they reach or surpass $750 in total winnings.

Question Submission

The Metaculus Cup welcomes question submissions from the community! Writing intriguing questions that attract forecaster engagement helps our forecasting community grow and keeps Metaculus ahead of breaking news. You can find our question writing guide here.

High-quality submissions also put you in the running for our question-writing medals, which recognize contributors who craft engaging questions that attract forecaster participation.

Perfect for All Skill Levels

If you're new to Metaculus, the Cup provides an excellent introduction to the platform and offers quick feedback on your forecasting abilities. For experienced forecasters, it's an opportunity to demonstrate your expertise in a competitive environment.

Forecasters of all levels will benefit from:

• Honing prediction skills
• Earning medals for accurate forecasts
• Engaging with fellow forecasters
• Tracking current events through the lens of quantified forecasting

Join the Competition

We invite you to participate in this exciting tournament series. Join the Metaculus Cup here and test your forecasting abilities against the community!