Metaculus Introduces AI-Powered Community Insights to Reveal Factors Driving User Forecasts

By christian @ 2023-11-10T17:57 (+9)

This is a linkpost to https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19841/introducing-ai-powered-community-insights/

Forecast Consumers Can More Quickly, More Deeply Understand Aggregate Forecasts Without Reading Hundreds of User Comments

Forecast questions sometimes feature hundreds of comments offering analyses, rationales, arguments, and evidence. Together they offer a trove of valuable insights pointing to the factors most likely to determine an outcome. We've introduced Community Insights to distill these into succinct summaries that get you up to speed in seconds.

Community Insights can help you:

• understand what drives the community prediction
• identify what is likely to determine a question's outcome
• pinpoint forecasters’ core disagreements
• see what you missed in a quickly-developing story

Community Insights appear on open binary and continuous questions with extensive comment histories. Similar forecasts are grouped together with AI-generated summaries of the comments that support them, providing readers with a deeper understanding of the aggregated Community Prediction.

How Does It Work?

We condense recent predictions, timestamped comments, and the current Community Prediction into GPT-4 generated summaries of the relevant arguments for different forecasts on a given question.

Get Started

Here are a few questions featuring Community Insights so you can see them in action. Just click the embedded question and scroll down:
 

• Will Ukraine join the EU before 2030?
• How much global warming by 2100?
• What will SpaceX be worth in 2030?
• What will China's fertility rate be in 2031?

If you find a misleading summary, you can let us know by flagging it. Your input and feedback will help make this new tool as useful as it can be to both forecasters and forecast consumers.