Metaculus Launches Space Technology & Climate Forecasting Initiative

By christian @ 2023-10-11T01:29 (+11)

This is a linkpost to https://www.metaculus.com/project/space-tech-climate/

The number of satellites launched into space has grown substantially in recent years, and this enhanced access to space may enable new frontiers in sustainable development and climate monitoring. Metaculus has collaborated with astrophysicist Emma Louden to launch the Space Technology & Climate Initiative, a series of forecast questions to explore this newfound potential. From better climate modeling, to protection of ecosystems, to space-based power systems, predictions on these questions will inform decision-making for sustainable development on Earth.

Below are some of the questions to forecast. Click here for the rest of the questions in this initiative. 

• Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?
• Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?
• Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?

Louden has also contributed a new piece to the Metaculus Journal to accompany the initiative: Orbital Allies: How Space Technology Fuels Sustainable Development and Climate Action.

Climate change and sustainable development represent critical challenges humanity must confront in the 21st century. Often, the focus on solutions is Earth-bound, involving local, national, or global initiatives. However, there exists an alternative avenue for impactful action—space technology. Space is not a separate sphere but an extension of Earth's ecosystem, where we can find tools and insights to tackle our most pressing challenges.

Be sure to also see Emma's previous contributions to the Metaculus Journal, exploring topics such as:

• Our Life Underneath a Chaotic Orbital Environment: The Relationship Between Space Debris and Space Utilization
• The Global Push to Return to the Moon: Predicting the Lunar Landings and Trends of the 2020s
• Private Citizen Space Travel: Participation, Place, and Price