Growth of prediction markets over time?

By kokotajlod @ 2021-09-02T13:43 (+8)

I would love to see a graph of the total amount of money sloshing around in prediction markets in 2021, 2020, 2019, etc. stretching back as far as we have data. I'm wondering whether there is a trend and if so what the growth rate is. My Google-fu is failing me so I'm asking here in case anyone else knows. 


NunoSempere @ 2021-09-02T14:39 (+8)

This would be extremely annoying to gather, way more effort than the value of information would warrant. Nonetheless, here is a database of prediction markets which you could use to get started. 

Things that make this annoying:

Some simplifications:

kokotajlod @ 2021-09-02T19:38 (+3)

Thanks! Gosh, it's disappointing to learn that prediction markets wax and wane in popularity over time instead of steadily exponentially increasing as I had assumed. (I'm thinking about the 'world events' kind, not the sports or stock market kind) This makes me pessimistic that they'll ever get big enough to raise the sanity waterline.

NunoSempere @ 2021-09-02T19:42 (+4)

prediction markets wax and wane

Sorry, I meant "prediction market platforms" wax and wane, thought the other interpretation is also correct.

NunoSempere @ 2021-09-02T19:52 (+4)

Also, for others reading the thread, the equivalent LW post got a better answer.