Charles Dillon 🔸

Pacing the Frontier: A Framework & Research Agenda
by Charles Dillon 🔸, technicalities, Raymond D @ 2026-09-18 | +32 | 0 comments

Estimating METR Time Horizons for Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT 5.3 Codex (xhigh)
by Charles Dillon 🔸 @ 2026-02-16 | +8 | 0 comments

An interactive toy model for exploring AI's effect on the labour market
by Charles Dillon 🔸 @ 2026-01-07 | +10 | 0 comments

On Comparative Advantage & AGI
by Charles Dillon 🔸 @ 2025-12-03 | +36 | 0 comments

On negotiated settlements vs conflict with misaligned AGI
by Charles Dillon 🔸 @ 2025-11-24 | +10 | 0 comments

How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?
by Charles Dillon 🔸 @ 2021-10-01 | +60 | 0 comments

An analysis of Metaculus predictions of future EA resources, 2025 and 2030
by Charles Dillon 🔸 @ 2021-09-22 | +50 | 0 comments

Predicting Open Phil Grants
by Charles Dillon 🔸 @ 2021-07-23 | +57 | 0 comments

An examination of Metaculus' resolved AI predictions and their implications for...
by Charles Dillon 🔸 @ 2021-07-20 | +81 | 0 comments

Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of...
by Charles Dillon 🔸 @ 2021-05-27 | +134 | 0 comments

What important questions are missing from Metaculus?
by Charles Dillon 🔸 @ 2021-05-26 | +38 | 0 comments

Charles Dillon 's Quick takes
by Charles Dillon 🔸 @ 2020-12-03 | +1 | 0 comments