Responsible Scaling Policies Are Risk Management Done Wrong

Cross-posted with LessWrong.

I found this post very frustrating, because it's almost all dedicated to whether current RSPs are sufficient or not (I agree that they are insufficient), but that's not my crux and I don't think it's anyone else's crux either. And for what I think is probably the actual crux here, you only have one small throwaway paragraph:

Which brings us to the question: “what’s the effect of RSPs on policy and would it be good if governments implemented those”. My answer to that is: An extremely ambitious version yes; the misleading version, no. No, mostly because of the short time we have before we see heightened levels of risks, which gives us very little time to update regulations, which is a core assumption on which RSPs are relying without providing evidence of being realistic.

As I've talked about now extensively, I think enacting RSPs in policy now makes it easier not harder to get even better future regulations enacted. It seems that your main reason for disagreement is that you believe in extremely short timelines / fast takeoff, such that we will never get future opportunities to revise AI regulation. That seems pretty unlikely to me: my expectation especially is that as AI continues to heat up in terms of its economic impact, new policy windows will keep arising in rapid succession, and that we will see many of them before the end of days.