Fluent, Cruxy Predictions

By Raemon @ 2024-07-10T20:34 (+15)

This is a crosspost, probably from LessWrong. Try viewing it there.

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SummaryBot @ 2024-07-11T13:54 (+1)

Executive summary: Making "fluent, cruxy predictions" can enhance decision-making and planning by integrating lightweight forecasting into everyday thought processes, focusing on predictions that would actually change one's actions if true.

Key points:

  1. Fluency in making predictions allows for seamless integration into planning and calibration of intuitions over time.
  2. Focus on "cruxy" predictions that would change decisions, rather than easily observable but less relevant factors.
  3. Reduce friction in making predictions using tools like Fatebook.io to encourage consistent use.
  4. Compare multiple plans and their potential outcomes when making predictions.
  5. Practice making predictions in low-stakes environments like video games to build the skill.
  6. The author notes uncertainty about the long-term value of this technique, as it is still being developed and tested.

 

 

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