Operationalizing timelines

Helpful post, Zach! I think it's more useful and concrete to focus on asking about specific capabilities instead of asking about AGI/TAI etc. and I'm pushing myself to ask such questions (e.g., when do you expect to have LLMs that can emulate Richard Feynmann-level -of-text).  Also, I like the generality vs capability distinction. We already have a generalist (Gato) but we don't consider it to be an AGI (I think).

Your main two concerns seem to be that the terms are either vague or don't quite capture what we care about.

However it seems that those issues might be insurmountable, given that we don't know the precise nature of the future AI that has the properties we worry about.