The World in 2029

By Nathan Young @ 2024-03-02T18:03 (+88)

This is a crosspost, probably from LessWrong. Try viewing it there.

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Mjreard @ 2024-03-03T15:05 (+7)

I found the cultivated meat one a little surprising so made a market: 

Nathan Young @ 2024-03-04T02:52 (+3)

Thanks!

You thought it was too low or to high?

Mjreard @ 2024-03-04T11:05 (+3)

Too high. I thought there were huge scaling barriers based on something Linch wrote ~2 years ago. Maybe that's wrong or been retracted. 

Bella @ 2024-03-04T11:23 (+3)

I think that's generally the picture I had, but I put some decent chance on people overcoming those kinds of barriers.

See e.g. https://scitechdaily.com/breakthrough-could-reduce-cultivated-meat-production-costs-by-up-to-90/ which seems in the category 'huge if true/generalisable'

NickLaing @ 2024-03-09T07:33 (+2)

Cultured meat might not have to progress that far too be a novelty item at many high end restaurants. I don't think this would mean it would necessarily have made any significant penetration or impact on the overall meat market.

NickLaing @ 2024-03-09T07:31 (+5)

Nice post love the combination of storytelling and forecasting.

Minor correction from my field, as great as it would be if there was any real chance of malaria bring eradicated in sub Saharan Africa by 2029, that prediction was for a a 50 percent chance of malaria bring eradicated in only one country, not the whole region.

My biased suggestion for improvement? A couple more global health predictions ;).

Elliot Billingsley @ 2024-03-10T07:44 (+1)

This was really cool to read. All quite reasonable predictions IMHO. I'm interested in seeing another one of this type when you get a chance.

I was pulled in by your narrative at the beginning. Maybe end it off with something fun and cultural, maybe a little hint at what dating will be like in the future :)

Nathan Young @ 2024-03-14T21:45 (+2)

If I were to do another, what should it be about?

SummaryBot @ 2024-03-04T14:05 (+1)

Executive summary: The post outlines a speculative but moderately optimistic vision of the world in 2029, with continuing AI progress, economic and political changes, new cultural debates, and technological advancements, while acknowledging uncertainties and potential risks.

Key points:

  1. AI capabilities will continue advancing rapidly, automating many tasks, but without reaching a "singularity" level yet (60-90% probability estimates).
  2. Economic and political landscape shifts include potential global recession (30%), changes in US administration (Trump/Biden), China's economic challenges (60%), and geopolitical instability risks (Taiwan, Ukraine, Middle East).
  3. New technological developments are expected in various domains: self-driving cars (60%), nuclear power (60%), fusion breakthrough likelihood (in 5 years), climate change mitigation.
  4. Emerging cultural debates and societal changes revolve around AI safety/ethics, post-woke ideological shifts, cultivated meat adoption (60%), and animal welfare stagnation.
  5. Overall outlook is cautiously optimistic ("it's gonna be okay"), despite uncertainties, with a focus on more transformative changes in the 5-15 year timeframe.
  6. Key areas of uncertainty flagged include AI governance, political instability risks, and effects of continued rapid technological change on society.

 

 

This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.

Nathan Young @ 2024-03-06T07:27 (+2)

Summary looks pretty solid.