Skepticism towards claims about the views of powerful institutions

Executive summary: Claims about the views of powerful institutions should be approached with skepticism, as biases and incentives can distort how individuals interpret or present these institutions' positions, especially when claiming alignment with their own views.

Key points:

1. AI governance is in flux, with shifts in political leadership and discourse affecting interpretations of institutional policies and statements.
2. People with inside knowledge may unintentionally misrepresent an institution’s stance due to biases, including selective exposure to like-minded contacts and incentives to overstate agreement.
3. Individuals may strategically portray institutions as aligned with their views to gain influence, credibility, or resources.
4. The bias toward overstating agreement is generally stronger than the bias toward overstating disagreement, though both exist.
5. While such claims provide useful evidence, they should be weighed carefully, with extra consideration given to one’s own independent assessment of the institution’s stance.

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