Superintelligent AI is necessary for an amazing future, but far from sufficient

By So8res @ 2022-10-31T21:16 (+35)

This is a crosspost, probably from LessWrong. Try viewing it there.

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RobBensinger @ 2022-11-01T00:55 (+17)

An interface for registering your probabilities (or you can just say stuff in comments):

Strong Utopia
Weak Utopia 
"Pretty good" outcome
Conscious Meh outcome
Unconscious Meh outcome
Weak dystopia
Strong dystopia
Charlie_Guthmann @ 2022-11-01T07:55 (+10)

I started filling this out and then stopped because I'm confused about this CEV  and cosmopolitan value stuff and just generally what OP means by value. It's possible I'm confused because I missed something (I skimmed the post but read most of it). Questions that would help me answer the prediction's above.

  • What is the definition of value are we are supposed to be using  (my current intuition is average CEV of humans)?
  • Was I meant to just answer the above question with my own values (or my CEV)?
  • Do other people feel like the above questions are  invariant to the definition of value/ specific value of CEVs?
  • What is the definition of cosmopolitian value and how is it action relevant in all of this?

The stuff below is a bit rambly so apologies in advance.

I don't really get the purpose of CEV for this stuff or why it solves any deep problems of defining value. I definitely think we should reflect on our moral values and update on new information as it feels right to us. This doesn't mean we solved ethics. It also begs the question of whose CEV we are using? CEV is agent dependent, so we need to specficy how we weight the CEV's of all the agents we are taking into consideration. In any case, my main complaint is that if the answers to the above questions are at least in part a function of what our CEV  is(or what definition of value we are use), then I feel like we are stacking two questions on top of each other and not necessarily leaving room to talk through cruxes of either. 

Let's assume we are just taking the average CEV of human's alive today as our definition of value. Some vales might be more difficult to pull off then others, as they may trend further from what aliens want or just be harder to pull of in the context of the amount of shards we have. Plus like, I just assumed we are taking the average of human's CEVs but we don't know what political system we will have. Who's to say that just because we have the ASI and have an average CEV  value the human's will agree to push towards this average CEV.  I guess in short I feel like I'm guessing the CEV and how that achievable that CEV is.

I also don't really follow the cosmopolitan stuff. I have cosmopolitan intuitions but I'm unclear what the author is getting at with it. I have some vague sense that this is trying to address the fact that CEV gives special weight to agents that are alive now. Not really sure how to even express my confusion if I'm being honest. 

That being said I loved this post. Lot's of information from disparate places put together. A summary could be nice, maybe i'll try to write one if no one else does.

RobBensinger @ 2022-11-01T20:11 (+3)
  • What is the definition of value are we are supposed to be using  (my current intuition is average CEV of humans)?
  • Was I meant to just answer the above question with my own values (or my CEV)?

The OP defines Strong Utopia as "At least 95% of the future’s potential value is realized.", and then defines the other scenarios via various concrete scenarios that serve as benchmarks for how "good" the universe is.

CEV isn't mentioned at that part of the article, nor is any other account of what "good" and "value" mean, so IMO you should use your own conception of what it means for things to be good, valuable, etc. Which outcomes would actually be better or worse, by your own lights?

My own personal view is that CEV is a good way of hand-waving at "good" and "valuable", and I can say more about that if helpful. The main resource I'd recommend reading is https://arbital.com/p/cev/.

I don't know what you mean by the "average" CEV of humans. Eliezer's proposal on https://arbital.com/p/cev/ is to use all humans as the extrapolation base for CEV.

I predict that if you ran a CEV-ish process extrapolating from my brain, it would give the same ultimate answers as a CEV-ish process extrapolating from all humans' brains. (Among other things, because my brain would probably prefer to run a CEV that takes into account everyone else's brain-state too, and it can just go do that; and because the universe is way too abundant in resources and my selfish desires get saturated almost immediately, leaving the rest of the cosmic endowment for the welfare of other minds.)

  • What is the definition of cosmopolitian value and how is it action relevant in all of this?

The article for that is https://arbital.com/p/value_cosmopolitan/. "'Cosmopolitan', lit. "of the city of the cosmos", intuitively implies a very broad, embracing standpoint that is tolerant of other people (entities) and ways that may at first seem strange to us; trying to step out of our small, parochial, local standpoint and adopt a broader one."

E.g., someone who values all people on Earth is more cosmopolitan than someone who just cares about the people in their country. Someone who values digital minds is more cosmopolitan than someone who just cares about biological ones.

A lot of where this gets tricky (and where the post directs its focus) is that cosmopolitanism encourages you to tolerate (or even embrace) values diversity in many respects. But if you're maximally embracing of values diversity, then this seems to reduce to having no preferences or priorities at all -- anything goes. So there's then a question, "What would the ideal cosmopolitan value system say about various forms of values divergence?"

I don't really get the purpose of CEV for this stuff or why it solves any deep problems of defining value. I definitely think we should reflect on our moral values and update on new information as it feels right to us. 

If you think CEV is an obvious and prosaic idea, then you probably understand CEV pretty well. :P It's not meant to be anything fancy or special; it's just meant to articulate in very broad terms the sort of thing we probably want to do in order to solve morality (in all the ways that are required for us to steer the future well).

CEV isn't a full specification of morality, but it's a simple, informal articulation of how humanity can attain such a specification (insofar as we need one in order to know what to do).

CEV is agent dependent, so we need to specficy how we weight the CEV's of all the agents we are taking into consideration.

Eliezer's proposal (which seems fine to me) is that we weight all humans equally. "CEV with all humans weighted equally" could then choose to defer to a different CEV that has some other, more sophisticated weighting; but weighting all humans equally at the outset seems fine to me, and has the advantage of being simple and less-likely-to-cause-controversy.

In any case, my main complaint is that if the answers to the above questions are at least in part a function of what our CEV  is(or what definition of value we are use), then I feel like we are stacking two questions on top of each other and not necessarily leaving room to talk through cruxes of either. 

I think I'm pretty used to this because I treat most moral questions as questions about CEV. So, e.g., if we're debating what the tax rate should be on luxury goods, I'm doing my best to estimate what my CEV would think about fairness, compassion, etc. when I make my decision.

Let's assume we are just taking the average CEV of human's alive today as our definition of value. Some vales might be more difficult to pull off then others, as they may trend further from what aliens want or just be harder to pull of in the context of the amount of shards we have.

average -> aggregate

shards -> shard

I think that we'll have way more cosmic resources than we know what to do with, in terms of maximizing the welfare of all currently-living humans. (Though there's still a question of what to do with the remaining resources -- e.g., creating new humans or other new minds to live cool lives.)

A summary could be nice, maybe i'll try to write one if no one else does.

People summarizing this sounds great to me! Among other things, it's a good way to check whether the post miscommunicated in some way. :)

trevor1 @ 2022-10-31T23:38 (+1)

I think it's also worth mentioning that hazard remediation, in and of itself, is much too low without superintelligent AI. Natural hazards like entropy and astrophysical threats like supernovae and gamma ray bursts would kill off non-superintelligent life, several orders of magnitude sooner.

It might not be worth mentioning though.

RobBensinger @ 2022-11-01T00:59 (+6)

Nate evidently disagrees:

I’ll note in passing that the view I’m presenting here reflects a super low degree of cynicism relative to the surrounding memetic environment. I think the surrounding memetic environment says "humans left unstomped tend to create dystopias and/or kill themselves", whereas I'm like, "nah, you'd need somebody else to kill us; absent that, we'd probably do fine". (I am not a generic cynic!)

There basically aren't any natural threats that threaten all humans, once we've spread a bit through space. "Entropy" isn't really a threat, except as a stand-in for "we might not use our resources efficiently, resulting in waste". (Or I guess "we might not do due diligence in trying to discover novel physics that might grant us unlimited negentropy".)