How effective were vote trading schemes in the 2016 U.S. presidential election?

By Eli Rose @ 2020-03-02T23:15 (+11)

a.k.a. vote swapping. The idea was to pair up Clinton voters in safe blue states with third-party candidate voters in swing states. Then the Clinton voter would promise to vote for the third-party candidate in exchange for the third-party candidate voter promising to vote for Clinton.

The idea was to fight the "spoiler effect" of third-party candidates. Since a Gary Johnson voter probably doesn't much care where their vote is cast, but a Clinton voter very much does, there's a positive-sum trade. You could sweeten the deal by offering more Clinton voters for every third-party voter.

There was a site called TrumpTraders that did this. IIRC it was the most popular. I used another site called makeminecount.org, as a Clinton voter in MA, and was paired with a Gary Johnson voter somewhere I don't remember.

The idea was interesting and novel. I'm curious — in retrospect, how effective were these schemes? And what problems did they run into?

My motivation is to explore if supporting a similar effort this year would be a good idea.


Linch @ 2020-03-03T21:42 (+10)

Ben West, I (to a much lesser extent) and a few other EAs worked on this in 2016: Vote Pairing is a Cost-Effective Political Intervention.

tl;dr: Ben estimates a personal counterfactual impact of 10 counterfactual votes in swing states for every hour of his labor (mostly software engineering), significantly higher than other plausible alternatives for work in politics.

Note that there was some pushback in the comments and also I think there's likely substantial diminishing marginal returns.

reallyeli @ 2020-03-04T04:17 (+1)

Sweet, better than I could have hoped for!

Any sense of what organizations/people are working on it this year? I wasn't able to find an email address for Steve Hull so I posted an issue — https://github.com/sdhull/strategic_voting/issues/20 — no response yet.

I'll also contact Ben.

Linch @ 2020-03-04T06:26 (+2)

Nope, haven't looked at it at all this year!

JP Addison @ 2020-03-03T00:46 (+4)

Note from site admin: I updated this post to be a Question-type post. Seems like a classic example of the genre, but let me know if you didn't want that.

reallyeli @ 2020-03-03T04:55 (+1)

Thanks. I realized it should have been a Question but too late — was there a way for me to upgrade it myself after posting?

JP Addison @ 2020-03-03T15:07 (+1)

No 🙃

anon123 @ 2020-03-04T06:45 (+3)

You might find this RCT interesting/helpful: https://alexandercoppock.com/papers/Coppock_trumptraders.pdf