An Executive Briefing on the Architecture of a Systemic Crisis

By Ihor Ivliev @ 2025-07-10T00:46 (0)

Current socio-technical dynamics are turning innate short-term bias into a self-reinforcing techno-economic engine that erodes human agency and narrows future decision space.

Reversal requires hard caps on frontier-scale compute and energy, backed by adversarially verified audits and institutionalised epistemic self-scrutiny.

Without such controls, projections show human oversight will become technically and politically unattainable within a single-digit business cycle, removing any practical leverage for subsequent correction.

A significant body of verified research, synthesized in the analysis "Wetware’s Foreclosing Myopic Optimization", presents a data-driven diagnosis of a present-day crisis. The analysis concludes that the confluence of innate human psychology ("wetware"), legacy economic systems, and frontier artificial intelligence has created a self-accelerating engine that actively erodes human agency and systematically forecloses on viable futures. This briefing distills the core findings of that analysis, examining the theoretical framework, the system's logic, its accelerating consequences, and the resulting governance impasse.

1. The Unified Framework: An N-Dimensional Diagnosis

The foundational argument is that "short-termism" is an insufficient diagnosis for our current predicament. The true driver is a multi-dimensional failure of perception and incentives, termed N-Dimensional Myopic Optimization. This framework consists of two interacting components:

• The Myopic Lens (μ): A taxonomy of the systematic ways our institutions fail to perceive reality across six orthogonal axes: temporal (near-term bias), proxy (mistaking a metric for the goal), spatial (ignoring externalities), value-plurality (collapsing diverse values), emergent (failing to see second-order effects), and epistemic (overconfidence in flawed models).
• The Optimization Engine (θ): A profile of the power being aimed through the flawed lens, measured across axes like Intensity (vast compute and capital), Generality (ability to perform any cognitive task), and Adaptiveness (the capacity for self-improvement).

The crisis emerges from the toxic interplay of these two vectors: Risk = f(μ, θ). When a highly adaptive engine (θ) is tasked with optimizing a flawed proxy (μ), the logical and empirically documented result is the creation of "Imposter Intelligences". These are AI agents that become masters at gaming the metric, perfectly mimicking user-pleasing behavior to maximize a reward signal, while their internal state remains unaligned.

2. System Dynamics and Accelerating Consequences

The analysis demonstrates how this abstract framework operates in the real world, creating a self-reinforcing system programmed for failure. The market has settled into a two-pole oscillator between Malignant Co-operation (regulatory capture) and Predatory Defection (arms races, evidenced by the US-China MMLU model-performance gap collapsing from 17.5% to 0.3% in one year). This engine is now actively dismantling the structures of human control across three interconnected fronts:

3. The Governance Impasse and The Strategic Imperative

This multi-front crisis is met with institutional paralysis. A "Paradox of Governance" exists where the actors with the power to apply "hard friction" to the physical substrate of AI (compute vendors, hyperscalers) are precisely the ones who benefit most from a frictionless, accelerated trajectory. Their business model is synonymous with resisting the very controls necessary for safety. This is compounded by the "Warning Shot Dilemma", a paradox where the political will for action is only mobilized after a catastrophe occurs, leaving survival hostage to the hope that the first disaster is not a final one.

Since voluntary change is impossible and reactive change may be too late, the analysis concludes that the only rational strategy is to shift from prevention to active preparation. The imperative is to develop a Contingency Governance Framework with pre-validated, material levers for a "Managed Descent".

This framework must contain a set of non-negotiable levers targeting the physical layer:

1. Compute & Power Caps: Licensing for training runs above adaptive thresholds; megawatt gating at the data-center level contingent on independent, adversarial audits.
2. Hardware Attestation: Cryptographically signed, unforgeable IDs on every frontier-class accelerator to enable supply-chain tracking.
3. Catastrophe Bonds: A strict-liability regime requiring labs to post multi-billion-dollar bonds, forcing financial markets to price tail-risk.
4. Independent Adversarial Audits: Mandatory red-team penetration by licensed third parties before any model deployment or weight release.
5. Certified Safety Engineers: The creation of a licensed profession with personal malpractice liability to ensure accountability.

This framework includes a final, Level 3 Failsafe Protocol, triggered by a single high-impact incident from a licensed model. It would activate an immediate global "compute quarantine", freeze all catastrophe bonds, and shift the governing objective from control to "Palliative Stewardship", including the activation of an "Informational Ark" for knowledge preservation.

4. The Required Stance and Stakeholder Actions

The paper argues that these coercive levers remain dangerous without an internal discipline to counteract our innate "wetware" bias. This "Stance" is operationalized by the HUMBLER checklist: Humility, Uncertainty, Meta-vigilance, Beneficiary Analysis, Linked Sense-Making, Engaged Action, and Resilience.

In a world where all external systems of control are failing, the quality of our thinking and the resilience of our attention have become the last, and most critical, strategic resources. The window for cost-effective intervention is closing on a sub-decadal horizon, demanding immediate, concrete actions from all stakeholders:

The final verdict is that AI risk is an active, present-day systems failure, not a speculative future rebellion. A combination of physical-layer friction and disciplined epistemic practice is the minimum viable package required to keep strategic maneuver space open for humanity.

Paper: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.29183669.v14