Predicting the future with the power of the Internet (and pissing off Rob Miles)

Executive summary: Manifold Markets is an online prediction platform that uses virtual currency to produce calibrated probabilities about future events through the aggregated bets of its users.

Key points:

1. Manifold Markets allows users to create prediction markets on future events and bet using virtual currency called "Mana".
2. Empirical analysis shows Manifold's probabilities are well-calibrated, meaning a 90% probability translates to a 90% frequency of occurring.
3. Manifold provides probabilities on newsworthy events like technology, politics, and more.
4. The author aims to surpass another user in referral sign-ups to Manifold.
5. Interacting with Manifold can improve one's own calibration in making probabilistic predictions.

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