How does The Gates Foundation closing in 2045 affect the funding landscape?

By JDLC @ 2025-05-15T12:57 (+23)

Full relevant article here: 20 years to give away virtually all my wealth | Bill Gates

Bill Gates recently shared the update that:

I will give away virtually all my wealth through the Gates Foundation over the next 20 years to the cause of saving and improving lives around the world. And on December 31, 2045, the foundation will close its doors permanently.

Which translates to roughly double the spending in the next 20 years, compared to the previous 25 years:

During the first 25 years of the Gates Foundation ... we gave away more than $100 billion. Over the next two decades, we will double our giving. The exact amount will depend on the markets and inflation, but I expect the foundation will spend more than $200 billion between now and 2045.

How, if at all, does this announcement shift the expected funding dynamics for Global Health and other EA-aligned causes and charities?

My uninformed initial speculations:

This could be a minor change, proportional to governmental spending.
- The update averages out to ~$10Bn/year for The Gates Foundation (~$6Bn/year increase), compared to (example) ~£9.2Bn expected spending for the UK Government in 2027.
  - UK Government numbers source: UK to reduce aid to 0.3% of gross national income from 2027
- This seems like The Gates Foundation is on the same OOM spending as a single country, but many countries give ODA.
- Government spending seems quite dispersed, for example including spend on refugees in the UK and assistance to Ukraine.
This could have a big impact on certain areas, for example malaria prevention.
- A quick scan of the Foundation website has several malaria-relevant articles, suggesting a priority in this area: Saving lives, ending disease, improving health | Bill Gates
This could affect other funder behaviour, which may or may not lead to more overall funding.
- For example, it could result in more donations to health-focussed charities, and charities should look to take advantage of this.
- For contrasting example, other major health funders (eg OpenPhil), might reallocate budgets away from Global Health towards other program areas, meaning non-health charities are best placed to take advantage.
It might have basically no impact for EA-aligned causes and groups.
- I'm not really sure how 'effectiveness-focussed' the Gates Foundation is, so the funding change might have no real impact for EA groups.

Would really appreciate better-informed forecasts on what this might change!

JDLC @ 2025-05-18T14:42 (+12)

I received a DM from someone who wishes to remain anonymous, but made the following points in answer to the question:

TLDR: The Gates funding increase is likely a large counterfactual funding increase but hardly any funding increase in absolute terms
The foundation currently spends ~$9bn per year. This is the outcome of a (public) decision ~3 years ago, to grow spending from ~$6bn p.a. at the time to $9bn, as steady state annual expenditure, over a period of 2-3 years
- Announcement to reach $9Bn p.a.: The Gates Foundation aims to spend billions | Bill Gates (2022)
- Most recent report (2023), says $7.75Bn: Annual Report 2023
This new update is only a very small increase in grants. (200Bn over 20 years = 10Bn p.a. = increase of 1Bn / 1/9th only.)
Since the $9bn decision, Warren Buffet withdrew his future contributions (also all public). It became clear through reporting around that that the majority of Foundation contributions to date had actually been Buffet money, not Gates money. So one should have expected a pretty meaningful drop in the $9Bn off the back of that, or Gates to significantly step up giving.
- Buffett announced a $5.3Bn gift in 2024, but said he would not donate after death: Warren Buffett to end donations to the Gates Foundation after his death, after announcing $5.3b in charity pledge - ABC News
- I think this means Buffett donations will continue until his death, and then stop, rather than stopping right now. Buffett seems to announce donations in June each year, so this should be confirmed next month.
So it’s fair to say that this is a very meaningful counterfactual increase vs a world where the Foundation had dropped down to 4/5/6 again.
It is not a meaningful increase in what the world of global health will see at all - esp once you compare the 1Bn increase to the many Bns of reduced spending from the US, UK, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, etc)
- McKinsey report detailing donation drops: The future of foreign aid: A generational shift | McKinsey (20% drop in 'Health' category)

DavidNash @ 2025-05-15T13:46 (+4)

The funding landscape also includes governments funding healthcare in their own countries. And the decisions they make will impact aid choices as well.

Vasco Grilo🔸 @ 2025-05-21T15:50 (+3)

Thanks for sharing.

The update averages out to ~$10Bn/year for The Gates Foundation (~$6Bn/year increase), compared to (example) ~£9.2Bn expected spending for the UK Government in 2027.

10 billion $ is 4.95 % (= 10/202) of the global official development assistance (ODA) in 2021 of 202 billion $.