The Old EA Who Lost Her Donations: A Proverb on Epistemic Absurdism
By Kat Woods 🔶 ⏸️ @ 2025-07-23T13:26 (+5)
An EA had only $3 to give to anti-malarial bednets.
One day, she lost her $3.
Her EA group said, “I’m so sorry. That is so net negative. You must be so upset.”
The EA just said, “Maybe.”
A few days later, she found out her $3 had been stolen by a man living on less than a $1 a day, and it was basically a non-consensual GiveDirectly donation.
Her EA group said, “Congratulations! This is so net positive. You must be so happy!”
The EA just said, “Maybe.”
The poor man used his money to buy factory farmed chicken, causing far more suffering in the world.
Her EA group said, “I’m so sorry. This is so net negative. You must be so upset.”
The EA just said, “Maybe.”
The poor man, better nourished, was able to pull himself out of the poverty trap and work on AI safety, eventually leading to an aligned artificial superintelligence that ended all factory farming in the world.
Her EA group said, “Congratulations! This is so net positive. You must be so happy!”
The EA just said, “Maybe.”
And it just keeps going.
Because consequentialism is the ethics of the gods.
For we are but monkeys and cannot know the consequences of our actions.
Are deontology or virtue ethics the solution?
The EA just says, “Maybe.”
Inspired by this Taoist parable of the Old Man Who Lost His Horse, trying to help one of my coaching clients through a bout of epistemic vertigo, and this old post of mine discussing the biggest lesson I'd learned after ten years in EA.
Epistemic nihilism = epistemic hopelessness. A view that no matter how rigorously you think or how good study methodology, you can't really understand the world because you are but a monkey in shoes.
Epistemic absurdism = the same thing - but happy!
NickLaing @ 2025-07-23T13:41 (+5)
I really like this thanks!
I can't resist an unimportant nitpicky poke at something which takes away precisely nothing from your overall great story.
"The poor man used his money to buy factory farmed chicken, causing far more suffering in the world."
People earning under 1 dollar a day ain't buying factory farmed chicken - not in Uganda anyway. They'll eat their own chicken kept at home, their neighbours' or none at all ;).
Kat Woods 🔶 ⏸️ @ 2025-07-23T13:47 (+15)
Maybe ;)
I remember excessively looking into this and it's quite complicated. Depends on where they are (e.g. if they're urban, they're more likely to buy factory farmed animals)
Also, in rural areas, they still sometimes actually often do what is essentially small scale factory farming of hens. For example, the Rwandan family I stayed with in a rural village had previously been running a small scale factory farm (~30 hens) who were kept in pretty similar conditions to large scale factory farms.
Also, their pigs were kept in stalls just slightly larger than gestation crates.
I don't know exactly how much they made a day, but they were definitely extremely poor (e.g. all dirt floors, only one bed in a family of >12 [most slept on the ground], ate almost entirely yams and sorghum, no running water, etc)
NickLaing @ 2025-07-23T14:01 (+14)
Yes its certainly complicated
For sure town folks and even those in rural centers folks are buying mostly factory farmed chickens and pigs. Goats and Cows generally are free range. I don't think almost anyone in Urban areas is living on under 1 dollar a day though - I would say its close to impossible as you aren't farming you're own food.
I'm 95% sure if they had 30 hens they are a pretty well off family in the village and far from the lowest income threshold. Its interesting you saw them kept in similar conditions to large factory farms, that really isn't common (or almost non-existent) in Ugandan villages. In peri-urban areas (like where I live, within 15 minutes from a town) its fairly common. In rural areas it doesn't make commercial sense to farm chickens like that, they mostly roam free. But yes this is a small percent now of the total chicken load in Uganda, most are factory farms in cities and most of them in the capital city.
Most of the chicken and eggs in town here are factory farmed and a lot of it even produced in the capital. I don't eat eggs here at all because of that.
Wow that's sad to hear about the pigs as well :(. Again really not the case here in rural areas, but in peri-urban some pigs are kept like that. My neighbours have pigs in really confined areas about half the time, then they let them out during the day.
Rwanda is very heavily populated though, so the rural setting there might well be quite different. How far out of town were you?
The lowest World bank threshold is now under $3 per day since June this year, up from $2.15. Even a minority of the poorest people in remote rural village are living on under the old $2.15. We recently did a poverty assessment of our OneDay HEatlh patients and I was surprised such a low percent (something like 30) came out in that bottom bracket. Although I have doubts about our methodology and suspect a lot more might actually be poorer.... And we need to recalculate for $3...