Like Martin and Rob, I also thought of EA when I found this opportunity. Here is the full guide I wrote on how to make the most out of sign up bonuses (two friends and I were able to make over $50,000 in five days) https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/29EZBsbLovTgu6C3B/ea-fundraising-through-advantage-sports-betting-a-guide

I know this post was written about NY bonuses, but there are 11 states with better opportunities for this than NYC. In order of most new user bonus dollars to fewest, here are the twelve states with at least five licensed online sports books:

New Jersey, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana, Virginia, Iowa, Tennessee, Arizona, Illinois, West Virginia, New York.

To Kasey's point, taxes are a HUGE consideration when considering whether this is worth doing. If you take the standard deduction, you will not be able to deduct losses against wins and you're forced into a strategy that attempts to lose very few bets (which is actually opposite of the strategy that maximizes EV of promos like Twinspires' and BetMGM's.)

Also: most sites do not let you bet bonus funds before betting your deposit. The only way to eliminate risk is by betting both sides of the same game.  Most sites have a stipulation that you must bet odds longer than -200 to claim bonus funds, so you cannot be more than a 67% favorite to qualify for this promo by betting one side. I think it is reckless for someone who only has $2,000 to their name be betting $1,000 via these promos, though the Caesars promo does give the bettor very favorable terms.

It's easy to see this as completely free money both due to survivorship bias and the availability heuristic. Rob ran above EV, so did I, and so did the friend I coached through this process in Michigan. There is risk involved, particularly with such a small sample of books in NY. We should be careful about how we advise EAs to risk their money, as trust in the community is worth much more than a few thousand dollars. 

Should we be concerned at all about Casinos refusing to release funds because of 'wagering requirements' (also see HERE or something like this? Are we sure these offers don't come with hidden wagering requirements or other catches?

Also these tips seem helpful to not getting your account shut down.

The Fanduel one isn't actually risk free (though still +EV).  The promotion is that if you lose your first bet up to $1000, they give you your wager amount back in site credit, which can't be directly withdrawn (and if you win you just get your bet winnings).

Lmao, I was thinking about writing this post, but then didn't. I guess I shouldn't be surprised that another EA wrote it up haha. Unilateralist's curse in action! 

The Caesars promo in NY right now is particularly lucrative. You can also make a good amount of money traveling to legal gambling states and signing up for new accounts in each state. It doesn't work for a lot of books, but for BetMGM you can make a new account and get a $1000 risk-free bet (EV is 600-800 profit) for each state you visit. 

Also, I think the optimal way to capture EV while minimizing volatility is to arbitrage the bets by betting both sides of a market on different books. I highly recommend oddsjam.com for finding arbitrage opportunities (you need to pay for that) or low-hold bets, basically worse arbitrage because you have 0% profit or a very small guaranteed loss. Oddsjam lists those for free and has a calculator for converting free bets into cash.

Another secondary benefit of people like us (presuming we are not problem gamblers) doing this:

1. Online Casinos are probably using these to hook problem gamblers

2. They have a limited budget for these offers and will only do it if it seems likely to be generating a profit

3. By 'exhausting' these offers and making it seem unprofitable to the casinos we may be preventing problem gamblers from getting hooked/drawn in again.

(Maybe Robirahmanhad this point in mind already)

Hi!  Separately from this current arbitrage opportunity, does the new NY law represent any kind of meaningful advance for the legality of prediction markets?

Also, if there are any rationalist sports fans out there with hot takes (or perhaps cold ones) on how I should bet, I'd be open to taking your advice.  After all, if I sign up for this, I will have to end up placing some random sports bets one way or another.  Might as well try to grab some of that mythical rationalist alpha while I'm at it.

Don’t misread the Caesars one. It seems like you need to deposit the full $1500 on your first deposit to get the max free bet.

OP, could you elaborate on how exactly you ended up with $4400? It would be interesting to know the bets / payouts involved, as well as how much of your own money you had to temporarily deposit (you say $2000, but it seems like for each bonus in the screenshot it's necessary to deposit an amount roughly equal to the bonus amount).

Also, you say six bonuses and $5800, but I only count five and $4800 in the screenshot.

FYI: It can be rather hard to make deposits -- these sites don't take many forms of payment, it seems, and many banks refuse it.

Also, in case you were considering using an IP blocker to access another state (and I'm not encouraging it) I don't think this will work.

It appears that the tax situation in the U.S. is extremely disadvantageous for sports betting.  Total winnings (not net) are taxed as income and losses can only be deducted if you itemize.

For example, if you win $800 and then lose $1000, you are stuck paying taxes on $800, even though you have no net profit (if you don't itemize your deduction).  The tax rate for gambling winnings appears to be 24%, though I'm not sure if this is correct.  So for people who are trying the approach "bet $1000 on something very unlikely... if you lose, bet the $1000 of site credit on something extremely likely", keep in mind that the modal outcome using this strategy is a loss of ~$240 when you consider taxes.  

Thanks for sharing this!

You have to be 21 (hope these or similar offers are still available when I turn 21!); I might add that to your tl;dr.

I'm on a 'bonus trip' now (also visiting Dad in upstate New York). Will keep you abreast of how it goes in my shortform here.

I hope others might benefit from my experience and help us learn to do this better.

You must be located in New York or another eligible state while signing up and making the bets.
 

Just to confirm -- do these bets require New York residency, or just being physically present in New York? What forms of identification are requested -- does it have to be a New York state ID (e.g. driver's license)? 

Just curious, how was the expected value calculated? Wouldn’t this depend on the bets you make?

Any inkling how long these offers will last?

Quite interesting information, thank you, it was interesting to read and something to think about

Re: this -

• Q: Does this entail any financial risk?
• A: No. As long as you only bet the bonus money and don't gamble your own funds, there's no way to end up with less than you started. I recommend making one bet on each site, then withdrawing your money and closing your accounts immediately after each bet ends.

I don't think this is accurate because most of these free bet offers require that you gamble your own funds to unlock the bonus (in VA, all but one require this - BetMGM, Barstool, and Unibet), and none of these sportsbooks lets you withdraw the bonus.  There is a long discussion coming to this conclusion in KaseyShibayama's comment thread but I really think it's worth amending the actual post since I know there are EA's who have lost money on this.