Exercise for 'What do you think?'

Concerns about EA

The focus of creating as much value as possible in the Expected Value calculation is one I am not very sure about. I understand the concept, but as someone who works with data, I’d be more drawn to causes that have been proven to have high value already. Thus, the idea of fringe ideas would not be one of my immediate concerns. I always feel that there are more pertinent issues which are visible and measurable that we should focus on currently. This is the same thought process I hold behind not being an advocate of longtermism. I believe we already have very many important causes right now that I’d rather we focus on.

Another area I’m a bit skeptical about is the expansion of the empathy circle. For most of my life I’ve not had a lot of empathy towards non-human animals. I would not want them tortured, but I would not say that they deserve as much empathy as human beings. Again, I feel like our circle of empathy still has a long way to go in dealing with humans so conversations on expanding it to other sentient beings (and stretching the idea as far as algorithms) is not a cause I feel holds that much importance to me.

Finally, one of my biggest concerns is the urgency placed on climate change in the community. When talking of the most important causes, I feel like climate change is under-ranked as a massive danger to the future of our world. I find it misleading to place speculative causes such as AI risks, catastrophic pandemics, nuclear war, and great power conflicts ahead of climate change in importance because climate change is something we are currently experiencing and it’s only bound to get worse. In my opinion, climate change is the top risk as it promises to destabilise society in the next few compared to some other risks (the warming targets we have set are on course to be missed as soon as 2030). The more we continue sliding into worse climate scenarios, the more social issues shall arise and they shall very possibly lead to the rise of all these other risks - AI/nuclear/biological wars triggered by the race for resources such as water, higher land away from the rising oceans, productive soil, and many more. Thus, I believe the cause prioritization should be reconsidered to account for these second factor effects of climate change.

I have no criticism so far but my concerns are related with the topics and reading materials. Some of the reading materials are too detailed , maybe some of them should be summarized.

Part 2

At first i had a problem understanding radical empathy ( the animal welfare part specifically) but after doing some readings i have started to get a clear understanding.

The artificial intelligence ideas  were surprising being the first time I was encountering the topic.  But after the readings and session it now makes a lot of sense and I think that it is important to learn  and research more about AI ,its advantages, disadvantages and how it will shape the future or destroy it.

The idea that AI poses a bigger risk than Climate Change doesnt sit well with me. I feel like for AI we can be able to understand and know how to mitigate the risks but for climate change, it is more  challenging because it affects all aspects of human well being, their health , it affects animals and plants, destroys places and so forth. Climate change should be  given the first priority  and we  should be worried about it because we are seeing the climate crises happening and for such climate crises we better work on ways of  preventing the crises rather than waiting for the crises to happen then start responding.

I'm going to share my answers. Please keep in mind that they might have been already tackled by other people elsewhere. In any case, those are the critiques I have so far.

Superficial references problem:
The handbook almost never recommends books on the subjects (except those written by MacAskill, Ord, Singer, etc), but instead they tend to recommend blog posts, Wikipedia, other EA-aligned webpages, or, at best, philosophy papers. In my opinion, there could be recommendations of textbooks on cost-effectiveness analysis, cause prioritization, economics, ethics, statistics, cognitive biases, etc. Since webpages and standalone papers are not nearly as good as textbooks to learn a subject, I believe recommendations of books are definitely warranted, otherwise we can get the impression that all the theoretical background that EAs have are those shallow references.

The neglectedness problem:
First, it's not clear how to distinguish between these two scenarios: (1) The cause is unfairly neglected, that is, much more neglected than it ought to be, considering its scale and tractability; and (2) The cause is neglected because it's really a bad cause to work for (due, for instance, to low scale or low tractability), in which case it being neglected is actually a sign that we shouldn't work on it. In order to help us sort out what's the underlying scenario, I think we should see whether other institutions/researchers have attempted to work on the issue in the past, and not just look at the absolute numbers of funding/researchers that are going to that cause in the present. I don't remember seeing this historical analysis being done. And maybe we should employ other strategies besides this historical analysis to sort things out.

Second, there's another shortcoming of just assessing neglectedness by looking at the amount of dollars being poured into a cause. People might be working to solve a problem and pouring lots of money into it using an inefficient method. For instance, suppose that we lived in a world where hundreds of billions of dollars were being spent on leafletting about the animal cause, and suppose that it is the case that leafletting is a very inefficient method to promote concrete changes to animal well-being. Then even though there are hundreds of billions of dollars being put into the Animal Cause, there would still be a low-hanging fruit, if we assume that, for instance, corporate campaigns are a hundred times more efficient than leafletting. So just looking at the sheer number of donated dollars to the Animal Welfare cause could be very misleading because even though it's not "numerically" neglected, we're not making use of the most effective methods.

Third, I'm not convinced that the curve of improvement as a function of funding/researching has a log shape (or any curve that implies diminishing marginal returns)

Fourth, even if it has a log shape, in order to infer that an additional person/dollar of funding would have a greater impact on cause A compared to cause B, we would need to know the parameters of the log curve for cause A and cause B, which we don't. For example, check www.desmos.com/calculator/ohwiagg7zi. Here we have two causes with a log curve, but with different parameters (hence, different shapes), and we can see that even though cause red is receiving more funding than cause green, the marginal return of cause red is still higher than the marginal return of cause B, which makes comparisons between different cause with regards to neglectedness very hard, if not impossible.

Blindspots: By "blindspots", I mean arguments that I've never seen being raised in the given discussions, though they seem to be crucial.

[The logic of the larder] blindspot in the Animal Welfare discussion: It's not crystal clear what is the net value of the lives of each factory-farmed species. For instance, if some species have net positive lives, then interventions that aim to reduce the number of factory-farmed animals will cause a loss of total value. Another thing to consider is that, because of the crops to sustain factory-farmed animals, they have a negative impact on the number of wild animals, and if we consider that the lives of wild animals are worse than the lives of some factory-farmed animals, then abolishing factory farms will have this other source of disvalue as well, by creating lives whose quality is even worse.

[Intelligence restart] blindspot in the Extinction Risk discussion: If only humanity goes extinct, couldn't some other species as intelligent as (or even more intelligent than) humans eventually evolve from other animals, say, from the surviving primates?

I feel questions 1 and 2 are essentially the same, with the second having a more partitioned approach. Did I overlook some important difference between them?

Hi! Just want to point out a typo: "This chapter we’d like you (...)". Thanks! :-)

-Going by the foundational exposition which have aided my introduction to the E.A community,I must have to state,I appreciate the reasoning and facts basis,which remain the foundational tools,geared towards doing good,in relation to prioritizing matters,which will yield the most benefits,as one of the striking features of the e.a,that really attracted me,to joining this community. -My concerns have to do with certain moral truths,which at some point can be objective or subjectively inclined,thereby been relative,with respect to location,times and settings,as how can the e.a community,set standards as regards such,in relation to handling issues.

• my criticism so far from what we've discussed,comes from the approach on climate issues,which the e.a community gives fair attention to,as it should be given a topnotch priority to, despite global influence,both on expenditures and engagements,by CSO's and several institutions. -finally,what I like about the e.a is it's incorporation of various categories of individuals,in relation to professions,which I see strength been harnessed in diversity , because of its underpinning ideals,which I subscribe too, because it's aids balancing inequalities and also giving voice,to the marginalized,while respectfully engaging all and sundry. B.
• based on materials and study engagements with our facilitator,I really understood,what we discussed and the studies I undertook, despite grey areas,which were subsequently made clear. -after each topic discussions and engagements,for me personally ,I will gladly say, enlightenment was attained,as even on issues which I personally might not be cool with,the facts and reasoning, alongside discussions ushered in awareness.
• one thing I found surprising was the issue of farm animals,which the e.a community is really engaging on,as based on indepth studies,I got to see reasons on how it makes sense, alongside the need to used plant based sources as alternative protein. The point is, giving my background as an African, initially I view it as a waste, because,in Africa,the bush is one of our source,were we kill different species of animals for food,asuch,I feel to reduce such, animal farming would aid minimizing such influences,but as it stand,the multiplying effect on both the animals and the environment, owing to animal farming and it's effect also to the animals themselves,based on evidential facts,which I came across, owing to the studies, aided my perceptional change, with respect to that. -one of the issues ,which was not surprising,but I have a different reservation about, have to do with the issue of farm animals ,which I stated above,as my hesitation to it,has to do with my reasoning of it, from an African perception,which I view animals,as just to be used as food, nonetheless,as stated above,the exposition via evidence and reasoning in line with e.a program, alongside other materials,have given me a different perception to that.which have aided my receptiveness to better light,of viewing the issues,as they need to be protected.