Forging A New AGI Social Contract

Society has long operated on a simple bargain: we contribute our labor and, in return, gain income, security, and a stake in the economy. Governments tax our wages to fund public services; corporations rely on human workers to create value; and in return, workers expect their efforts to be rewarded with opportunity and security. This centuries-old implicit bargain will soon come under strain.

Maybe this is a small detail to focus on, but I often see a problem when people try to tell a story along the lines of "society was stable and harmonious since time immemorial and then this new, disruptive, dangerous technology came along". I see a problem with this story.

Slavery wasn't abolished in the United States until 1866. Two centuries ago would be 1825. So, is anything resembling a fair bargain exchanging labour for "income, security, and a stake in the economy" really "centuries-old"?

North America and other parts of the world also have a history of indentured servitude. 

Even well into the 1900s, workers were treated in a way that was exploitative and violent. For example, Ford's management and security tried to violently suppress union activities, in at least one case killing some of the workers. 

The brief overview of the history of labour under the heading "Revisiting Our Social Contract" also doesn't mention slavery, indentured servitude, or other ugly, violent parts of this history. 

AGI or transformative AI would, in theory, cause fundamental changes to the way society organizes itself around productive labour, capital investment, government revenue, the welfare state, and so on. Yes. This possibility does raise social, political, and ethical questions. Yes. I get that when you're writing an article like this, you often just need to quickly put together a framing device to get the conversation off the ground. 

But this framing device just seemed a little too whitewashed for my taste.

Executive summary: This introductory essay launches an anthology on the economic and societal implications of artificial general intelligence (AGI), arguing that AGI could fundamentally upend the existing social contract by displacing labor and concentrating wealth, and calling for a proactive reimagining of governance, redistribution, and institutional frameworks to ensure shared prosperity in the coming era.

Key points:

1. AGI may disrupt the core economic bargain by replacing a wide range of cognitive jobs, leading to labor displacement and weakening the link between work and income, security, and opportunity.
2. Wealth generated by AGI could become highly concentrated, flowing to capital owners and leading to extreme inequality, loss of tax revenue, and diminished worker bargaining power and mobility.
3. These outcomes are not inevitable—they result from institutional choices and can be addressed with ambitious reforms to taxation, redistribution, corporate governance, and public infrastructure.
4. A new social contract is needed, one that updates the roles and responsibilities of governments, corporations, and individuals in light of AGI's transformative economic effects.
5. The essay announces a research agenda and essay series featuring policy proposals from economists and political theorists, addressing topics such as international taxation, AI liability, economic rights for AI systems, and alternatives to UBI.
6. Call to action: The authors urge policymakers, researchers, and the public to collaboratively envision and design equitable economic systems before the full impact of AGI arrives.

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