Curse of knowledge and Naive realism: Bias in Evaluating AGI X-Risks

By Remmelt @ 2022-12-31T13:33 (+5)

This is a linkpost to https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h3qMKzCrzJvjvSWbR/reactive-devaluation-bias-in-evaluating-agi-x-risks

Curse of knowledge

When better-informed people find it extremely difficult to think about problems from the perspective of lesser-informed people.

Unfortunately, particularly among prominent academic people, with high prestige, along with a natural inclination of topic specialists to view and interact with the world (other people) in fairly unique ways, leads to some isolation inherently, significantly strengthening the tendency to form 'in' and 'out' groups.

This factor combines with the above bias so as to to strengthen its occurrence significantly.

  - link Wikipedia:  Curse of knowledge
  - an item on Forrest Landry's compiled list of biases in evaluating extinction risks.

Naive realism

The belief:

• that we see reality as it really is objectively and without bias; that the facts are plain for all to see;
• that rational people will agree with us; 
• and that those who do not are either uninformed, lazy, irrational, or biased.

  Strongly associated with the 'Curse of knowledge' bias.

  - link Wikipedia:  Naive realism 
  - an item on Forrest Landry's compiled list of biases in evaluating extinction risks.