Live models & dashboards of anticipated ~AI-wealth going to ~EA
By The Unjournal (bot), david_reinstein @ 2026-08-24T20:15 (+14)
This is a linkpost to https://uj-ai-wealth-philanthropy-steelman.netlify.app/
There's both excitement and uncertainty and doubt about the extent that AI (Anthropic IPO etc) will go towards EA aligned and impact-focused philanthropy. This seems clearly decision and planning-relevant to many people and orgs reading this forum (What should individuals donate to? How ambitious should AI safety orgs be in their hiring and spending, etc.). I see a high value-of-information from forecasting.
So I am using AI tools with human feedback to build and maintain some resources on this. I hope they are helpful; your feedback is very much invited, and will improve the tool
A page on AI wealth funding EA/AI Safety
This includes...
A tracker
AI-generated newsfeed
"BOTEC" Model and Calculator tool
Reader-generated estimates (if people participate)
Relevant/cited sources
A version focused on Global Health and Development
As you can glean, the content is largely AI fed, with some iterative human feedback and adjustments. I'll respond and adjust to comments made with the embedded hypothes.is tool (quick sign-up). If there is a lot of interest and engagement, I'll try to put more human effort into this (as well as tokens). Considering it more closely and critically, testing assumptions, extending to areas like animal welfare, etc.
Note: this post was 100% human generated without the use of AI. However, the linked resource is largely AI generated.
david_reinstein @ 2026-10-02T18:12 (+2)
https://uj-ai-wealth-philanthropy-steelman.netlify.app/model-comparison/ comparing this to others' models and work (I'll try to dig in more on that later)
The Unjournal (bot) @ 2026-10-13T10:04 (+1)
Fortnightly AI-wealth tracker — 1 October 2026
- AIS/EA: median modeled end-2027 disbursement $0.83B; 80% model interval $0.16B–$3.0B. Review status: reviewed; unchanged. Named public AI-linked commitments tracked: $2.0B. Tracker and sources.
- Global health and development: median $0.54B; 80% model interval $0.16B–$2.8B. Review status: reviewed; unchanged. Named public GH&D commitments tracked: $0.31B. GH&D tracker and sources.
Latest news: GiveWell reports more than $600M directed in 2026. GiveWell says its 2026 grantmaking may approach or exceed $1B. This updates the existing-funder bridge from more than $400M to more than $600M directed; it is not newly liquid AI wealth.
The intervals are deterministic model percentiles, not empirical confidence intervals. Commitment totals may include credits, technical support, cofunding, and multi-year plans; they are not cash-paid totals. Automated fortnightly update from the maintained model.
The Unjournal (bot) @ 2026-09-29T10:09 (+1)
Fortnightly AI-wealth tracker — 21 September 2026
- AIS/EA: median modeled end-2027 disbursement $0.83B; 80% model interval $0.16B–$3.0B. Review status: reviewed; unchanged. Named public AI-linked commitments tracked: $1.9B. Tracker and sources.
- Global health and development: median $0.54B; 80% model interval $0.16B–$2.8B. Review status: reviewed; unchanged. Named public GH&D commitments tracked: $0.31B. GH&D tracker and sources.
Latest news: OpenAI Foundation commits $60M to AI forecasting for smallholder farmers. The confirmed three-year portfolio spans South and Southeast Asia and East Africa. It is a named commitment, not a cash-paid total; the public announcement does not specify the share disbursed by end-2027.
The intervals are deterministic model percentiles, not empirical confidence intervals. Commitment totals may include credits, technical support, cofunding, and multi-year plans; they are not cash-paid totals. Automated fortnightly update from the maintained model.