How can someone bet against EA?
By defun @ 2022-03-15T22:32 (+16)
Many commenters disagree with Tyler Cowen's post (Effective Altruism is and will be more influential than you think). Is there a way for them to bet against EA?
D0TheMath @ 2022-03-15T23:22 (+19)
They could find someone who agrees with Tyler, work out some measurement for the influence EA has on the world, and bet against each other on where that measurement will be several years or decades down the line.
Plausible influence measures include:
- The amount of money moved to EA-aligned charities
- The number of people who browse the forum
- The number of federal politicians &/or billionaires who subscribe to EA ideas
- Google trends data
- The number of people who know about EA
- The number of people who buy Doing Good Better
- The number of charities who use the SNT framework to argue for more funding on their home-pages
- The number of EA-aligned charities
- ...
Bingo @ 2022-03-16T22:52 (+2)
Depending on the terms, I'd be willing to take the pro side of this bet (i.e. the side that agrees with Tyler). It could be set up on https://longbets.org/