How likely is a US war with Iran?

By Garrison @ 2019-06-20T17:44 (+1)

I haven't been following this story too closely, but it seems like people in the Trump admin (specifically John Bolton and Mike Pompeo) are doing everything they can to gin up a war with Iran (with the help of House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff). Trump has shown signs of actually wanting to avoid war throughout his term, but people like Bolton have made it their life's work to provoke wars (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/05/06/john-bolton-on-the-warpath). There are serious echoes of the build-up to the war with Iraq (e.g. claims of credible intelligence showing Iran was responsible for attacking ships in the strait of Hormuz).

I haven't seen much EA discussion of this or found related questions in betting markets or the good judgment project. The prospect of war with Iran (a much stronger, larger country than Iraq) led by an even more cruel and incompetent administration is horrifying. This is the most reasonable place I know of on the internet, so I wanted to see what people here thought.