AGI Cannot Be Predicted From Real Interest Rates

I think this is a good point, predictably enough--I touch on it in my comment on C/H/M's original post--but thanks for elaborating on it!

For what it's worth, I would say that historically, it seems to me that the introduction of new goods has significantly mitigated but not overturned the tendency for consumption increases to lower the marginal utility of consumption. So my central guess is (a) that in the event of a growth acceleration (AI-induced or otherwise), the marginal utility of consumption would in fact fall, and more relevantly (b) that most investors anticipating an AI-induced acceleration to their own consumption growth would expect their marginal utility of consumption to fall. So I think this point identifies a weakness in the argument of the paper/post (as originally written; they now caveat it with this point)--a reason why you can't literally infer investors' beliefs about AGI purely from interest rates--but doesn't in isolation refute the point that a low interest rate is evidence that most investors don't anticipate AGI soon.