Data systems for malaria burden estimation: Challenges, initiatives, and opportunities

By Rethink Priorities, Jenny Kudmowa, Aisling Leow, Melanie Basnak🔸, Carmen van Schoubroeck @ 2025-05-28T19:07 (+16)

This is a linkpost to https://rethinkpriorities.org/research-area/data-systems-for-malaria/

Editorial note 

This report was commissioned by GiveWell and produced by Rethink Priorities from August to September 2023. We slightly revised the report for publication in May 2025. GiveWell does not necessarily endorse our conclusions, nor do the organizations represented by those who were interviewed.

The primary focus of the report is a landscape analysis to provide an overview of the major challenges, barriers, and improvement initiatives with regards to malaria-related data systems in sub-Saharan Africa. Our research involved reviewing the scientific and gray literature, and we spoke with three experts.

Since the time of writing, the malaria data systems landscape has evolved, particularly due to recent disruptions in United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funding. In early 2025, the U.S. government significantly reduced USAID’s budget, leading to the reduction or termination of several major initiatives, including the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program, which ended in February 2025. Many of the efforts described in this report, especially those focused on strengthening routine malaria data, list USAID as a major funder. While we have not systematically assessed the impact of these changes, it is likely that some programs have since been altered, scaled back, or discontinued. These developments are not reflected in the body of the report but are noted here to provide context.

We don’t intend this report to be Rethink Priorities’ final word on malaria-related data systems. We have tried to flag major sources of uncertainty in the report and are open to revising our views based on new information or further research.

Executive summary

Notes on the focus and scope of this report

This project is a landscape analysis of the main challenges and efforts to improve routine data collection systems for estimating the malaria burden in low-income countries. Its two main goals are to:

  1. Provide an overview of the main challenges and constraints for collecting health data routinely.
  2. Provide an overview of previous or current efforts or initiatives to improve the accuracy of disease burden data.

 

The focus of this project was guided by what we consider the most decision-relevant aspects for GiveWell: 

Key takeaways

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Acknowledgments

Jenny Kudymowa, Carmen van Schoubroeck, and Aisling Leow jointly researched and wrote this report. Jenny also served as the project lead. Melanie Basnak supervised the report. 

Special thanks to Melanie Basnak, Ruby Dickson, and Natalie Crispin (GiveWell) for helpful comments on drafts. Thanks also to Shane Coburn for copyediting and Sarina Wong for assistance with publishing the report online. Further thanks to Tom Churcher (Imperial College London), Bob Snow (University of Oxford), and Tasmin Symons (Malaria Atlas Project) for taking the time to speak with us. 

GiveWell provided funding for this report, but it does not necessarily endorse our conclusions.