Securing Civilization Against Catastrophic Pandemics

I am surprised I only now discovered this paper. In addition to Jeff's excellent points above, what stood out to me was that the paper contained both likelihoods of different scenarios as well as what I think is some of the more transparent reasoning behind these likelihood numbers. And the numbers are uncomfortably high!

There is more detail on how the likelihoods were arrived at in the paper itself - the last column is only a summary.