New Research: Climate Mitigation is Overlooked by EA

By Dan Stein @ 2026-08-18T14:48 (+48)

Disclaimer: This blog post focuses on a new piece of research from Rethink Priorities. I was not involved with the funding or execution of this research, and therefore write this piece merely as a consumer. However, I am the Executive Director of Giving Green and a board member of Rethink Priorities, and acknowledge that these affiliations may bias my interpretation of the work. 

TL;DR

• New research from Rethink Priorities seeks to compare cost-effectiveness of high-impact giving in climate change mitigation versus global health and development.
• Key research contribution is re-calculating the social cost of carbon using an EA-aligned value framework, which allows direct comparison of climate giving opportunities to Coefficient Giving’s (CG) funding bar
• Conclusion is that donating to high-impact climate funds (such as Giving Green or the Founder’s Pledge Climate Fund) is competitive with Coefficient Giving’s Global Health and Wellbeing Fund, especially given the recent drop in CG’s funding bar
• Many conversations with AI lab employees lead me to believe that climate is not a priority cause area for this group. As opposed to many other EA-aligned cause areas, I think that climate mitigation is unlikely to be saturated by the hypothetical flood of AI-fueled donations. Therefore, it is likely to become relatively even more cost-effective compared to traditional EA causes. 

Introduction

Over time, there have been numerous discussions on how climate change mitigation should rank as an EA cause. For instance, in his influential Climate Change and Longtermism, John Halsted writes, “In my view, climate change is one of the most important problems in the world, but other problems, including engineered viruses, advanced artificial intelligence and nuclear war, are more pressing on the margin because they are so neglected.”

That being said, many donors have a near-to-medium term view and therefore may be directly comparing donating to climate mitigation (for instance, through the Giving Green Fund or the Founder’s Pledge Climate Fund) to global health and development (GHD) options such as giving through Coefficient Giving’s Global Health and Wellbeing (GHW) Fund or Givewell’s (GW) Top Charities Fund. Yet until recently (to my knowledge) there was no quantitative work doing this cross-cause comparison. 

That’s why I was delighted to see new research from Rethink Priorities (Clare and Vargas 2026) that seeks to quantitatively compare the cost-effectiveness of GHW interventions to climate mitigation, specifically by comparing the benchmark of 1-2 dollars/tCO2e sought by the climate funds to the “funding bar” of Coefficient Giving/Givewell. The crux of this comparison lies in the calculation of the “social cost of carbon” (SCC), or the amount of societal damage caused by a ton of CO2 emissions. The findings: climate donations are competitive with GHD, and are more cost-effective than GHD under certain sets of assumptions. This is particularly true now that Coefficient Giving has lowered their funding bar by roughly half, due to “growing expectations of future giving” (presumably from AI Lab employees). 

How to compare climate to GHW: Use SROI

When comparing climate mitigation to GHW, Rethink’s approach is to calculate the social return on investment (SROI) of climate funds, and compare it to CG’s funding bar. For CG, their “funding bar” is expressed explicitly as an SROI. In the Rethink paper, CG’s funding bar is stated as 2000x, but CG recently updated it to 1000x. In other words, they expect that for every dollar granted, they will get (in expectation) 1000 dollars worth of value (which could come from saving lives, improving health, improving impact, etc.) Since CG attempts to fund GW until their funding bars are equal, we can assume 1000x to be a good approximation of GW’s marginal funding SROI. 

To calculate the SROI of climate interventions, the authors use two parameters:

1. Cost effectiveness of climate philanthropy, expressed as the amount of USD required to reduce a tonne of emissions ($/tCO2e)
2. Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), which is the total cost (including lives lost, economic damage, etc), expressed in $/tCO2e

The ratio of (2) to (1) gives the amount of societal benefit from spending a dollar on climate philanthropy. For instance, if philanthropic opportunities can be bought for $1/tonne, and the SCC is $200/tonne, then the SROI of this investment is 200x. 

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of climate philanthropy, Rethink takes the approach of drawing from a distribution spanning  $.50 and $3.50 (cost per tonne of CO2e avoided). Cost-effectiveness estimates in this space are highly uncertain, but Giving Green’s modeling suggests that opportunities exist at around $1/tonne, and we use this as a rough benchmark when assessing grantmaking opportunities. The prospect of $1/tonne also surfaced in Rethink’s research, as quoted below:

“In our conversations and research, multiple individuals expressed confidence in being able to find interventions at a cost of roughly $1/tonne or even lower. However, because we maintain significant uncertainty about how realistically these opportunities might scale, we wanted to apply a reasonable, perhaps slightly conservative, lean to our abatement costs.”

The Key Parameter: Social Cost of Carbon

The most difficult parameter in making this comparison is the social cost of carbon, which is hotly debated in the climate literature. Therefore, Rethink makes the comparison for different assumptions of SCC. 

One issue with using SCCs from the literature is that they rely on assumptions that are standard in the economics literature, such as a modest discount rate. However, these assumptions invalidate a direct comparison to the CG bar. In my mind, the biggest contribution of the Rethink paper is the recalculation of a prominent SCC using “an EA valuation framework” that makes it comparable to the CG bar. This involves changing four main inputs into the SCC:

• Assuming equal valuation of lives/Disability-Avoided-Life Years (DALYs) globally
• Application of “pure rate of time preference” of zero (compared to the status quo discount rate of 2%)
• Weighting of damages such that X dollars of loss are weighted higher for poor people than for rich people. (This is based on CG’s assumption of logarithmic utility, explained here.)
• Integrating estimated deaths from air pollution, which are not incorporated into standard climate damage models. 

These adjustments, along with some other minor ones, make a meaningful difference. A frequently-cited SCC from Rennert el at (2022) is $185/tonne, which was used by the Biden EPA. However, the adjustments of applying the “EA Evaluation Framework” cause the SCC to rise to over $2000/tonne.

Main Results

The paper’s results explore how the comparison between climate and GHD shifts under a number of assumptions, of which I highlight a couple that I think are most relevant. The first is a simple comparison of the CG bar to the “mainstream” adjusted SCC. This mainstream SCC ($2000/ton, discussed above) accounts for the impact of lives lost, as well as economic impacts from agriculture and sea-level rise. I reproduce this comparison from the Rethink paper below:

Adopted from Clare and Vargas (2026). New CG Bar added to graph

Under the old CG bar, CG investments were roughly 2.5x more impactful than climate investments, though the error bars overlapped. However, the new CG bar is very close to the climate SROI, well within the estimates’ range of uncertainty. 

A primary criticism of “mainstream” approaches to SCC such as Rennert et al. (2022) is that they assume exogenous growth and then model economic damages as a percentage of GDP. In other words, the models allow climate to affect levels of GDP, but not growth. This “levels not growth” assumption of standard models has been strongly criticized by many prominent economists, who find it unbelievable that the major societal shifts brought on by climate change will not affect growth. 

If we do assume that climate change affects growth, this massively increases SCC. The Rethink paper surveys the literature on economic growth effects of SCC and finds quite a range of estimates, so they present a few outcomes, shown below. Adopted from Clare and Vargas (2026). New CG Bar added to graph

With economic growth (as well as a modest 25% adjustment for “tipping points”) added to the SCC, climate interventions now easily beat the CG bar. Depending on the assumptions around growth, climate is roughly 2-5x more impactful than CG’s new bar. 

Why might this be wrong?

The comparison of climate to GHW is based on quite a few assumptions, which may drive incorrect answers. Critically, both key parameters—cost-effectiveness of climate philanthropy and the social cost of carbon—come with great uncertainty. 

At Giving Green, we do a lot of modeling of the cost-effectiveness of climate donation opportunities, and I will be the first to admit that the modeling is very uncertain. Most of the organizations we support have long theories of change involving policy and/or technology change. Therefore, the models come with many assumptions that could be incorrect. However, we have seen many opportunities that pencil out in the $1/tonne range, making us feel more comfortable that this is an achievable threshold. 

Additionally, the social cost of carbon is a difficult-to-calculate parameter that comes with substantial uncertainty. Complex systems, such as behavior of ice melt from glaciers, and the earth’s changing reflectivity, could have large human effects that are not incorporated in current damage models. Additionally, it is very hard to predict how human adaptation and technological progress will allow society to adapt to changing temperatures. 

Given these fundamental uncertainties in climate philanthropy, donating to climate is definitely more uncertain than donating to GiveWell Top Charities. It is probably more uncertain than donating to GW “all grants” or CG’s GHW fund, but this is less clear because some of the grants made from these funds also rely on uncertain theories of change, such as policy change. 

Conclusion

Many in the EA community tend to believe that donations to climate organizations are not competitive with other near- or medium-termist opportunities. This new research shows that is not clearly the case, and that climate appears competitive with EA-aligned GHD options such as Givewell. 

In the near term, cause areas traditionally favored by EA (such as GHD) are expecting a flood of money, which will likely saturate grantmakers, and reduce the marginal cost-effectiveness of additional contributions. We see this dynamic already, with CG recently lowering its funding bar by half (from an SROI of 2000x to 1000x). 

This dynamic is unlikely to affect climate grantmaking in the same way. Many conversations have led me to believe that climate is not a priority cause area among most early AI lab employees, meaning it is unlikely that the anticipated upcoming wave of philanthropy will saturate climate funds the same way it will other causes. Therefore, I think climate will remain cost-effective on the margin, and over time will become relatively more attractive in comparison with other favored EA causes. 

As of now, EA-aligned climate grantmaking is far from saturated. Over at Giving Green, we have built up a 6-person research and grantmaking function, and are on track to make ~34 million in new grants from the Giving Green Fund in 2026. Much of this grantmaking is fueled by a large gift we received in 2025, and we are on track to meet our goal of completely regranting this large gift, as well as all other assets currently in our fund, by the end of 2026. This leaves us with plenty of grantmaking capacity for late 2026 and 2027- we think at our current staffing levels we could make 100M of grants in 2027, and could also increase staffing to create more capacity.