[Offer, Paid] Help me estimate the social impact of the startup I work for.

By Eli Rose @ 2019-01-03T05:16 (+7)

I'm a software engineer at a Boston startup. We connect U.S. college students with mentors that support them and help keep them in school (universities are our customers). I took this job two years ago for learning, career capital, and the promise of positive impact on the world.

If asked, I could say with confidence that it has delivered on the first two, but on the last point I feel epistemically clueless. Many universities pay for our services, we collect data on what students and mentors say have happened in their relationships, and we have a studies assessing impacts on retention rates. But in the for-profit world there is not much incentive (even from paying customers) to put our resources behind studying counterfactuals.

I don't know how to approach such an analysis, or to what extent I should expect such an analysis to be possible. I don't expect full enlightenment -- any progress would be helpful to me and help me decide what to do with my career in the future.

I would love to work with someone who has done this kind of thing before to attack this question. I would pay you for your time, at a rate you feel is reasonable.

My email is really.eli@gmail.com.

Ozzie Gooen @ 2019-01-20T22:04 (+2)

Quick 2c: I think it's typically assumed among many prominent EAs that global poverty / animal issues / long-term issues are all a lot more efficient than U.S. educational issues. As such, I'd personally expect that the main benefits of you doing that work, assuming you will later work in one of the three areas I mentioned (or meta-work), to come from the first two things you mentioned (learning & career capital.)

I think it's incredibly difficult to have much counterfactual impact in the for-profit world. You're right to have considerable epistemic uncertainty.

reallyeli @ 2019-01-21T15:47 (+2)

Thanks very much for the comment Ozzie.

I share the idea that U.S. educational issues are not the most efficient ones to be working on, all else equal. My question arises because it's not obvious to me that all else is equal in my case. (Though I think the burden of proof should be on me here.) For example, I have a pretty senior role in the organization, and therefore presumably have higher leverage. How should I factor considerations like that in? (Or is it misguided to do so?)

I'm curious also about your statement that it's hard to have much counterfactual impact in the for-profit world. I've been struggling with similar questions. Why do you think so?

Ozzie Gooen @ 2019-01-20T22:08 (+2)

On that note, if you are an engineer, you may want to consider going the AI-safety route. I've written about this here

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3u8oZEEayqqjjZ7Nw/current-ai-safety-roles-for-software-engineers

Khorton @ 2019-01-21T23:21 (+1)

Please tell me you found someone - the small number of comments makes me sad!

Khorton @ 2019-01-21T23:19 (+1)

Are you looking for people to evaluate your impact based on the data you have, or is your company genuinely willing to research its counterfactual impact if you push for it?

reallyeli @ 2019-01-26T06:56 (+2)

The former. To your other comment -- yes, I've gotten a number of emails! :)

reallyeli @ 2019-01-21T15:46 (+1)

Thanks very much for the comment Ozzie.

I share the idea that U.S. educational issues are not the most efficient ones to be working on, all else equal. My question arises because it's not obvious to me that all else is equal in my case. (Though I think the burden of proof should be on me here.) For example, I have a pretty senior role in the organization, and therefore presumably have higher leverage. How should I factor considerations like that in? (Or is it misguided to do so?)

I'm curious also about your statement that it's hard to have much counterfactual impact in the for-profit world. I've been struggling with similar questions. Why do you think so?