We’re not prepared for an AI market crash

By Remmelt @ 2025-04-01T04:33 (+23)

This is a crosspost, probably from LessWrong. Try viewing it there.

null

Karthik Tadepalli @ 2025-04-01T05:32 (+4)

Thanks for the link to your thoughts on why you think it's likely that there will be a crash. I think you underestimate the likelihood of the US government propping up AI companies. Just because they didn't invest money in the Stargate expansion doesn't mean they aren't reserving the option to do so later if necessary. It seems clear that Elon Musk is personally very invested in AI. Even aside from his personal involvement the fact that China/DeepSeek is in the mix points towards even a normal government offering strong support to American companies in this race.

If you believe that the US government will prop up AI companies to virtually any level they might realistically need by 2029, then i don't see a crash happening.

Remmelt @ 2025-04-01T06:36 (+4)

Just because they didn't invest money in the Stargate expansion doesn't mean they aren't reserving the option to do so later if necessary.... If you believe that the US government will prop up AI companies to virtually any level they might realistically need by 2029, then i don't see a crash happening.

Thanks for reading and your thoughts.

I disagree, but I want to be open to changing my mind if we see e.g. the US military ramping up contracts, or the US government propping up AI companies with funding at the level of say the $280 billion CHIPS Act.

OllieBase @ 2025-04-01T08:58 (+2)

Just a heads up that this was posted on April Fool's day, but it seems like a serious post. You might want to add a quick disclaimer at the top for today :)

Remmelt @ 2025-04-02T05:13 (+2)

Haha, I was thinking about that. The timing was unfortunate.