Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, and "Cope"

Executive summary: Researchers and planners often make overly optimistic assumptions when faced with difficult problems, which can lead to flawed strategies and overconfidence in uncertain domains like AI alignment.

Key points:

1. People tend to slip into more "convenient" worldviews when faced with seemingly impossible challenges, often overestimating the likelihood of favorable assumptions.
2. Experiments show that even smart researchers repeatedly make overconfident predictions when solving unfamiliar puzzles.
3. It's easy to focus on areas where one feels traction, even if those areas aren't actually crucial to solving the core problem.
4. Real-world research, especially in AI alignment, lacks clear feedback loops, making it difficult to develop reliable "research taste."
5. Recommendations for researchers include: diversifying problem-solving experience, critically examining assumptions, seeking mentorship, and considering the full chain of events needed for research to have impact.
6. The author emphasizes the need for better feedback loops in rationality and research, though admits not having a clear solution yet.

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