ARC Evals: Responsible Scaling Policies

1. I like the idea of concrete (publicly stated) pre-defined measures, since it lowers the risk of moving safety standards/targets. It would be a substantial improvement over what we have today, especially if there's coordination between top labs.

2. The graph shows jumps where y increases at a rate greater than x. Has this ever happened before? What we've seen so far is more of a mirrored L. First we move along the x-axis, later (to a smaller degree) along the y-axis. 

3. The line between the red and blue area should be heavily blurred/striped. This might seem like an aesthetic nitpick, but we can't map the edges of what we've never seen. Our current perceptions are thought up by human minds that are innately tuned to empathize with and predict human behavior, which unwittingly leads to thinking along the lines: "If I was an AI and thought like a psychopathic human, what would I do?". We don't do this explicitly, but that's what we're actually doing. The real danger lies in the unknown unknowns, which cannot be plotted on a graph a priori. At the moment, we're assuming progression of dangers/capabilities in a "logical order", i.e. the way humans gain abilities/learn things. If the order is thrown around, so are the warning signs.