How will the world respond to "AI x-risk warning shots" according to reference class forecasting?

By Ryan Kidd @ 2022-04-18T09:10 (+18)

My conception of an "AI x-risk warning shot" is an event that signals the potential for impending AI x-risks in a "widely broadcasted manner", but is not itself an unfolding x-risk.

• If such a warning shot occurs, is it appropriate to infer the responses of governments from their responses to other potential x-risk warning shots, such as COVID-19 for weaponized pandemics and Hiroshima for nuclear winter?
• To the extent that x-risks from pandemics has lessened since COVID-19 (if at all), what does this suggest about the risk mitigation funding we expect following AI x-risk warning shots?
• Do x-risk warning shots like Hiroshima trigger strategic deterrence programs and empower small actors with disproportionate destructive capabilities by default?