Will there be an EA answer to the predictable famines later this year?

Thanks for raising this question!

Undernourishment (not getting enough and the right types of caloric intake, a subset of malnutrition) is a massive issue currently, affecting 660 million people; especially in children,^[1] it can have significant long-term health sequelae e.g. stunting. And you are right, as a consequence of the war in Ukraine, it is likely to get worse.

Although cash transfers do have a positive impact on degree and rates of undernourishment, it likely isn't the most directly cost-effective way of addressing this issue.^[2]

There are a couple things that we could do (disclaimer: have read about this area before, spent 10 minutes on this):

1. Fund and scale up CMAM programs around the world- A couple of reviews, including this pretty good one by Save the Children, rate community management of acute malnutrition or CMAM, as one the most cost-effective intervention. CMAM involves treating severe acute malnutrition (SAM), especially in young children, via therapeutic feeding in predominantly outpatient facilities.
2. Cautiously increase funding in other interventions that are promising- There are several other interventions that may be very cost-effective for undernutrition and malnutrition- Large Scale Food Fortification, Multiple Micronutrient Supplementation for pregnant women, and small-quantity Lipid-based Nutrient Supplementation for children 6-23 months.  
3. Work with governments to create healthier and more resilient food systems- this has a slightly longer ToC but can be quite effective e.g. Reductions in childhood stunting in Peru, from a rate of 29.8% in 2005 to 18.1% in 2011, have been attributed to improved policy and institutional coordination, pooled funding for nutrition and binding nutrition targets, as well as the creation of a civil society platform, the Child Malnutrition Initiative^[3]

1. ^{^}

   More info on the Our World in Data page on undernourishment

2. ^{^}

   There is mixed evidence here. Some studies have shown it to be reasonably cost-effective (e.g. this one in Pakistan, but this one in Burkina Faso did not)

3. ^{^}

   Directly from Aid Forum: http://www.aidforum.org/topics/food-security/four-ways-to-reduce-malnutrition/

I don't have an answer, but I appreciate you raising this ahead of time and think it would be great if we could have well thought out answers and resources for this. 

GiveDirectly are doing cash transfers in Yemen to help people there afford enough food to eat.

Not an answer, but I'm struck by the (probably correct) presumption that people will still see the "right" answer as bednets. It's not just a matter of optics: temporary emergencies (like the coming famines) seem very likely to offer the most cost-effective interventions, conditional on not being neglected. The reason is that 1) in the absence of the emergency, people would otherwise live long and healthy lives, 2) temporary emergencies often cost less to address than systemic issues. This is why during the height of India's COVID-induced oxygen shortages, oxygen interventions were (arguably) more cost-effective than GiveWell top recommendations, because most people who could be saved by an oxygen tank would have lived longer lives otherwise. So people should definitely not discount famine relief ex-ante as being less cost-effective.

You might also be interested in GiveWell's post on malnutrition: https://blog.givewell.org/2021/11/19/malnutrition-treatment/ 

Copying their conclusions:

Overall, we see malnutrition as a very promising area for funding and further research. It potentially offers $1 billion or more in funding opportunities at cost-effectiveness levels that are consistent with our top charities.

We have many open questions and a long road to go to answer them. We are currently investing significant energy into addressing our uncertainties, and we look forward to sharing more updates about our progress.

Also their grant to ALIMA
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/ALIMA-malnutrition-Niger-June-2021 especially the "Case for the grant" section

Would donations and interventions now, in anticipation of the potential famine, be more effective?