A list of resources on Cluelessness

By Jim Buhler @ 2025-11-17T13:59 (+31)

From summer 2024 up to summer 2025, I had been keeping track of these resources in a private Google Doc shared only with a couple of people. I realized others might benefit too, so here is the latest version, last-updated on August 7th, 2025.

You'll find a few references that are missing from the list below in my post Discussions of Longtermism should focus on the problem of Unawareness (October 20th, 2025).

See also DiGiovanni's Resource guide: Unawareness, indeterminacy, and cluelessness (July 7th, 2025) for a cluelessness Q&A and pointers to what references address what.

See also this comment of mine (September 15th, 2025) for a brief overview of key debates surrounding cluelessness.

See also DiGiovanni's  What to do about near-term cluelessness in animal welfare (October 8th, 2025) and Graham's If wild animal welfare is intractable, everything is intractable. (November 14th, 2025) for cluelessness concerns (and what to make of them) in animal welfare, in particular.

On reasons to be clueless about how to increase welfare impartially

Attempts to debunk these reasons for cluelessness


Some work where there is no actual case. They simply claim we know things:


Some work that doesn’t actually argue contra cluelessness but draws implications assuming we are highly uncertain but not fully clueless (without justifying this assumption):

On indeterminate beliefs

  1. ^

    Proposes Maximality as a way of choosing the best actions under indeterminate beliefs regarding their impact. Argues Maximality is plausible although it might never recommend anything.

Angelina Li @ 2025-11-17T23:08 (+5)

Wow thank you! I'm sending this to someone I know. Appreciate it!

Something that would make this post more helpful for me: If you had to pick 1-3 resources for someone to start reading about cluelessness (say: someone who is vaguely worried about cluelessness but hasn't invested deeply in building their own models yet / could use a refresher), where would you choose?

(No pressure of course, this is already very helpful :) )

Jim Buhler @ 2025-11-18T07:16 (+6)

Thank you :)

I guess I recommend reading this overview (or this longer one?) and/or DiGiovanni's Q&A and then checking the references in these that discuss whatever they think their own crux is. 

This will likely point them to some parts of DiGiovanni's (2025) sequence The challenge of unawareness for impartial altruist action guidance, which is the best and most comprehensive resource (in terms of arguments) on the topic imo.

JoA🔸 @ 2025-11-18T15:57 (+3)

Were I to pick only one that's at once rigorous and accessible, I'd say the first post in Anthony DiGiovanni's sequence on Unawereness (20m read officially, but has some references and charts, so I'd say it probably takes 10 minutes to read it: 1. The challenge of unawareness for impartial altruist action guidance: Introduction