Are there models/forecasts of community growth (or lack thereof)?

By jackva @ 2023-04-10T12:19 (+15)

I am interested to form a better view of EA community growth/contraction and was wondering whether there are any models/forecasts on this?

I extrapolated from past trends (e.g. funding and job placement data) but this seems a poor method given the events of the last months, so I am wondering if better attempts exist. Until now I only found scattered comments on plausible effects from the events but no integration attempt.