Who wants to bet me $25k at 1:7 odds that there won't be an AI market crash in the next year?

Nice, let’s do it. I saw you messaged me. 

Frankly, because I'd want to profit from it.

The odds of 1:7 imply a 12.5% chance of a crash, and I think the chance is much higher (elsewhere I posted a guess of 40% for this year, though I did not have precise crash criteria in mind there, and would lower the percentage once it's judged by a few measures, rather than my sense of "that looks like a crash"). 

That percentage of 12.5% is far outside of the consensus on this Metaculus page. Though I notice that their criteria for a "bust or winter" are much stricter than where I'd set the threshold for a crash. Still that makes me wonder whether I should have selected an even lower odd ratio. Regardless, this month I'm prepared to take this bet.