Exercise for 'Putting it into Practice'

Based on the readings in previous chapters, which global problems do you think are most pressing and why? (Remember, experts are quite uncertain about this question!)

Biorisks: Whether through a bioweapon, a lab leak, or a naturally occurring pandemic, I believe that dangerous microorganisms that spread globally and cause immense amounts of suffering and deaths are very plausible (since it has already happened and we're increasing the potential for bioweapons and lab leaks as technology progresses)

Nuclear War: Given the constant tension in international relations that seems to permeate History and the fact that these nuclear warheads already exist and can easily be deployed, it would not be a surprise if a full nuclear war between two nations would eventually unfold and lead to hundreds of millions of deaths, and many more injured people (let alone a potentially catastrophic Nuclear Winter).

Global poverty: Over 4,000,000,000 people (±50% of the world population) have to survive daily on less resources than $6.7 dollars can buy in the US (for comparison, the US poverty line is below $37.23). Poverty seems to be strongly correlated with a lower quality of life in all relevant domains (child mortality, life expectancy, access to healthcare, education, learning outcomes, life satisfaction). Just to connect to the other two problems above, global poverty would be worsened both in cases of pandemics or nuclear war that negatively impacts the world economy.

Battery-caged hens: Billions of chickens are living possibly net negative lives every year, and their situation can be improved considerably by abolishing the use of battery cages, which seems a feasible intervention, given that many companies have already done it.

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What are your 3-5 biggest uncertainties about the above?

Uncertainties about nuclear war: What is the chance that we'll have a nuclear war that poses existential risk? What can be done to lower the risk? Some people have argued that the existence of nuclear weapons is part of the cause for why the world has been more peaceful in the last decades, compared to before. If this is true, then how does that change our relationship to the existence of nuclear weapons?

Uncertainties about global poverty: Would it be solved just by redistributing the world's wealth, or would that not be enough? What is the risk that, by making people richer, the environmental destruction increases to a point of no return?

Uncertainties about battery-caged hens: How much better are their lives outside the cage? If still net negative, what's the chance that the abolition of cages would lead to "moral licensing", i.e., society feeling that we don't need to abolish factory-farmed hens, because they are already cage-free?

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What could you do over the next few weeks to explore those uncertainties? 

Do more reading! :-)

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What aptitudes are you most interested in exploring or using next? You might want to think about what you’re unusually good at, what activities make you feel energized, and what skills seem especially useful for addressing the problems you listed above.

I'm particularly interested in mathematical modeling and statistics, which seem very useful tools for evaluating scientific evidence, which, in turn, helps to shed light on most of these questions and uncertainties.

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How could you begin to test out those aptitudes over the next few weeks?

I'll continue my studies of mathematics and statistics, as planned :-)

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While you’re figuring out your uncertainties, are there any actions to improve the world that you want to do now? 
Yes! I plan to create a one-hour presentation about some of the world's biggest problems and how to address them to some friends of mine (I plan to do one-on-one meetings) who have the resources and the desire to have a positive impact on the world, but might not have thought about it.
I also plan to contact the one-on-one 80,000 Hours mentorship some time this year.

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Thank you all for striving to make the world a better place!

1. The causes I feel are the most important are factory farming, wild animal suffering and S-risks (these, I believe, cause or have the potential to cause the most suffering while being hugely neglected).

2. Key uncertainty: The tractability of working on wild animal suffering seems to be a huge problem.

3. What to do about the uncertainty: Read up on what is already being done (Arthropoda foundation, Wild Animal Initiative) and what the prospects are.

4. Aptitudes to explore: community building, organization running/boosting, supporting roles.

5. Keep volunteering for an effective organization while also recruiting new people into EA in free time; learn how to communicate ideas better.

6. I'm donating monthly to effective charities, volunteering my skills and engaging with the community.

For me, though not directly discussed in reading, the staggering gaps in economy, and the poorly developed infrastructure for health and education, even in developed countries, is poorly managed and often mulled over in beauacracy far too much to make any signficant change. Something more in the readings, and something I was knowledgeable, but complicit in, was factory farming. As for full blown ex-risks, I would have to say the re-growing possibility of a nuclear fallout and the threat of bio-warfare. I want to say AI Safety as well, but from what I've seen, the AI bubble is prone to burst fantastically before we get that far. (Hopefully). Climate change is another great fear of mine, but that project focus is well accounted for.

Top 3? That would have to be the poor quality of food/health in many world areas (as it is getting better, but much too slowly), and likewise the two ex-risks I've written of (I fear escalation of existing conflicts).

Most likely, read more, but definitely start conversation with others to give me that "initial push" or recommendations.

For me, I do really enjoy research and I'm fairly good at computational mathematics (not so good at pure math). I do also find myself intrigued by philosophical questions, yet I feel this could be a supplement rather than my career goals.

I already can! I've joined one laboratory at my college, and I can more than likely join more over the next few years. I could also hazard to research more staff to talk to that focus on issues (immunology and neuro) that are of great interest to me. I will also be taking courses on ecology to see if that's a good avenue for my skills.

For what I'd like to do, I'd like to build a community of fellow future and current PhDs or researchers and subscribe to more journals that follow biological concepts. To pull in that philosophical interest, I can start reading more on theory that posits effective ways to make change.

1. I think Climate Change,AI and biotechnology and Biweapon posses  a bigger risk. The reason is because most of the problems are human made and we think that maybe the risks wont be that higher but in the long run we get ffected big time

   1. For AI, we are not 100% sure of what it is capable of.

   2. We might be aware of how to mitigate climate crises but we are waiting for the problem instead of solving the root cause. 

2. I will do more research and  reading on the same.

   I can give back to the community by organizing charity events where we donate foods,clothes , sanitary pproducts and medicine

poverty, leadership and environmental issues,are the top issues,on my global listing,which I feel should be looked into,as the rate of poverty and inequalities,could be related to economic issues,which have continually been at the expense of one benefiting more than the other,and that of leadership,linked to political issues,which spans across local and international levels,where diplomacy, alongside international relations are charted for several reasons,which posits several division, despite a common course,that binds us all as humans.finally,the environmental issues,consist of several outcomes, which climate change is incorporated along,and has made people, battling for several reasons ,as the quest for much better environmental structure, cutting across several communities within the globe, cannot be overemphasized. my biggest uncertainty with respect to the above outcomes is that,can there be fairness,on the global stage for this issues? and towards exploring this uncertainties,I would engage in further research and other engagements, towards unraveling measures,which will help curb the situations,as I would continue with my community and social engagement,which it's ongoing, towards improving the lots of our communities,in relation to global engagements and partnerships, which E .A, is a platform, towards attaining that,and I really appreciate, and seek working with this network ( the e.a community, in relation to other global partners), towards improving our communities and the world at large.